GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 to 3 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative strength overnight, building on Trump’s seeming change of attitude towards China. Grains favored the downside in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Equity markets are solidly higher this morning, while front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged, showing doubt that much will change on the trade front. The U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher.
President Donald Trump said the current 145% tariffs on China “will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier on Tuesday he believes a trade deal with Beijing can be reached. China’s foreign ministry signaled Beijing is willing to discuss tariffs with the U.S. but won’t do so under continued threats from the Trump administration. “China’s attitude towards the tariff war launched by the U.S. is quite clear: we don’t want to fight, but we are not afraid of it. If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is wide open,” a foreign ministry spokesperson said.
The White House is preparing to unveil non-binding trade frameworks with Japan and India to delay steep tariffs and show diplomatic progress before a looming July deadline. These are not comprehensive trade deals, but memorandums of understanding designed to signal momentum while leaving core issues unresolved, Politico reports. The U.S. and India agreed to a negotiation roadmap, but specifics remain unclear. Failure to progress could trigger tariffs up to 26%. Talks with Japan are progressing cautiously; Tokyo resists rushed concessions, with more meetings scheduled.
President Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates… but, no, I have no intention to fire him,” Trump said. Trump’s softer tone on Powell came after he recently lashed out at the Fed chair. Trump has privately raised the possibility of firing Powell to advisers in recent months. Last week, he expressed confidence that he had the authority to oust Powell.
CORN: July corn futures have turned lower. Support at $4.79 3/4, the 40-day moving average, limited the downside overnight and is reinforced by support at the psychological $4.75 mark. Resistance comes in at $4.84 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $4.87 on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue to trade in a tight, sideways range. Resistance stands at $10.50 then $10.57 1/2 on persistent strength. Support comes in at $10.40 3/4 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: July SRW futures are working lower for the third consecutive session. Support comes in at $5.42 3/4 on continued selling, which is reinforced by the contract low of $5.32 1/2. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark then $5.54 1/2, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Outside markets are sharply higher following positive news on the trade front, which is likely to lift cattle futures that have tracked closely with equity futures recently. June futures continue to trade at a hefty discount to the cash market, which could support prices as well. Wholesale beef ended Tuesday lower as Choice cutout slid $1.79 to $331.73 while Select fell $1.12 to $317.65.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Tuesday’s technical breakout. June futures pushed above resistance stemming from the March highs on Tuesday. That move is likely to continue today, especially considering the favorable risk-on tone across the marketplace this morning. The CME lean hog index is up another 37 cents to $86.08 as of April 21, the fourth consecutive daily gain. Pork cutout slid 61 cents to $95.78 Tuesday, led by losses in ribs and butts.