GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 10 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the downside overnight while corn and soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged. GDP coming in lower than expected this morning weighed on risk assets. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower for the third consecutive session while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 125 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since the first quarter of 2022. This was a sharp reversal from 2.4% growth in the previous quarter and came in below market expectations of 0.3% growth. A 41.3% surge in imports contributed to the slowdown, as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods in anticipation of higher costs following a series of tariff announcements by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose at a slower 1.8% (vs. 4.0% in Q4 2024) and federal government spending declined 5.1%, the largest decrease since Q1 2022.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he had reached a deal with one foreign power that should permanently ease the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump plans to impose. Lutnick declined to identify the country, saying the deal was pending local approvals. “I have a deal done... but I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval,” he said. White House officials had no further comment on the country in question, though there’s speculation it is India after comments from Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday.
Argentine farmers’ soybean sales were the slowest in 11 years despite the easing of exchange controls that President Javier Milei hoped would encourage sales. According to the ag ministry, soybean sales reached 24% of the 49 MMT estimated harvest as of April 23. Uncertainty regarding the exchange rate and a slow start to soybean harvest due to heavy rains have impacted the soybean sales pace.
CORN: July corn futures consolidated overnight. A continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure finds support at $4.67 1/2 then $4.65, while bulls are trying to reclaim psychological $4.75 resistance before challenging the 40-day moving average at $4.79 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continued lower overnight. Continued selling finds support at the 40-day moving average at $10.41 1/4, which sees little backing until $10.30. Resistance stand at the psychological $10.50 mark on a bounce.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bears forged a fresh contract low at $5.23 1/4 which stands as initial support and is reinforced by support at $5.20. Resistance stands at $5.32 1/2 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though profit-taking could limit gains after the open considering the short-term overbought nature of the market. Packers continue to cut back on slaughter counts, as estimated slaughter so far this week is running below last week’s low total. Cash trade remains abysmal to start the week, as expected, yielding little guidance for futures. Wholesale beef was mixed Tuesday as Choice cutout surged another $5.49 to $348.26 while Select sunk $1.30 to $323.82. Choice reached the second highest ever behind the 2020 surge to a record $450.92.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of yesterday’s technical breakdown from the steep uptrend dating back to the early April low. Futures are expected to continue lower today, especially considering the downturn in pork cutout, which is down another $1.06 to $96.59. While the medium term trend remains sideways for cutout, it will be difficult for the cash hog market to continue to work higher without reciprocal gains in cutout. The CME lean hog index is up another 60 cents to $88.78 as of April 28, the ninth straight daily gain.