GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat saw relative strength overnight while soybeans pulled back modestly after Friday’s gain. Front-month crude oil futures have found some strength above the $90-mark which has encapsulated most price action the last couple weeks. The U.S. dollar index is up around 200 points this morning.
President Donald Trump on Sunday said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” but offered no details on the agreement. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday morning said Russia had used drones and missiles to strike power and gas facilities overnight, the Financial Times reported. “We are ready to respect an energy ceasefire if Russia is ready to do the same,” he said. Trump on Friday said he had reached an agreement to ease sanctions on Moscow to allow Russia to release diesel supplies onto the world market. Analysts have questioned whether the amounts agreed to would have a significant impact on the market.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, on Sunday – a day after a strike that killed 12 people. The strike on Saturday injured more than 300 people and marked the deadliest single incident in Saudi Arabia since the start of the Iran war in late February, Bloomberg reported. The strikes come after Saudi-backed forces last week launched a campaign to retake Houthi-held areas in Yemen and eliminate the group. The Houthis have seized a large chunk of Yemeni territory and bolstered their control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a global shipping chokepoint, the report noted.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that large speculators had cut their net long position by 60,000 contracts in the weekly period ending on Oct. 6. That left them with a long position at a still elevated 317,400 contracts ahead of Friday’s bearish USDA data, which triggered the biggest one-day slump for corn since 2023 and raises the risk of further liquidation from an already crowded long position, wrote Ole S. Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a weekend note. The data showed fresh buying in soybeans over the period, lifting the net long position to 251,700 contracts, near its one-year high, while wheat positioning remained mixed, Hansen said.
CORN: December corn futures are up on corrective strength. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.84 3/4 then $4.95 3/4 on continued strength. Support lies at Friday’s low of $4.70 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans held support at $12.81, the 40-day moving average, the past couple sessions. Additional support comes in at $12.75. Resistance comes in at $12.94 1/2 then $13.00 on a push higher.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat have held $6.61 1/4 support the past couple sessions. That remains key support today. Resistance comes in at $6.83 1/2, the 100-day moving average, on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Futures broke out on the daily bar chart and traded to the highest mark since mid-August. Bulls now hold the near-term technical advantage. Still, weakness in the cash market could undercut gains in futures as last week’s cash cattle average looks poised for another week-over-week drop. Choice beef slid another $1.50 to $373.35 Friday, extending the recent slide.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective buying. Futures slid to a fresh contract low Friday but are now in the lower end of the descending channel on the daily bar chart. A weaker cash market continues to undercut futures, as the CME lean hog index is down another 80 cents to $77.61 as of Oct. 8. Pork cutout inched 86 cents higher to $80.50 Friday, led by strength in bellies.