GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Unchanged to 4 cents higher
Soybeans: 6 to 10 cents higher
Wheat: Winter wheat unchanged to 4 cents higher, HRS 2 to 6 cents higher
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led corn higher in the overnight, continuing to capitalize on yesterday’s strong gains driven by weather concerns. Price action in winter wheat classes diverged overnight, with SRW steady and HRW mildly firmer. Seasonal pressure is still a factor as grains typically struggle in the month of August. The key outside markets look to be mixed for grains today, with the U.S. dollar index steady to 5 points higher, and West Texas crude futures currently 50 to 70 cents higher at roughly $85.10.
USDA reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
U.S. stock futures declined overnight as global bond yields surged to multi-year highs amid mounting concerns over massive government spending and persistent inflationary pressures. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed toward 4.75%, approaching its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year T-Bond yield rose to its highest since 2007. Markets also remained concerned about persistent tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices amid fading prospects for a new peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, while efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked. Long-term borrowing costs in Germany and France have climbed to their highest levels in at least a decade, while Japanese yields are hovering close to all-time highs. Yardeni Research says there’s no reason to panic on the U.S. bond market yet, despite growing signs of unease over rising government debt. The firm is monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might push yields higher. However, Ed Yardeni is sticking with his view that the U.S. bond yield should continue to trade in a normal range of 4%-5%, without causing any adverse consequences for the economy and corporate earnings.
The National Weather Service today said a cool air mass from Canada is dipping into the northern-tier states. Stronger upper-level troughing associated with the cool air mass was able to push the unrelenting heavy rain and thunderstorms away from the Midwest and the Ohio Valley, and to the East Coast this morning. As this cool air mass advances deeper into the Northern Plains, a new round of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms developing across the northern Plains will move toward the Midwest into this evening. Meanwhile, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms farther south across the central Plains. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from central Nebraska and northern Kansas to as far east as the Mississippi River. Hit-or-miss storms will also be possible across the central and southern Rockies, as well as the central High Plains. Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards. Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast. By Wednesday, some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the desert Southwest and southern Plains.
President Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with Iran, leaving the conflict in the Middle East stuck in limbo. Trump is demanding that free passage through the Strait of Hormuz be restored, while Iran said it will govern traffic in conjunction with Oman. Trump told Fox News that back channels with officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain open, but an IRGC spokesman described that assertion as a “delusion.” A memorandum of understanding the U.S. and Iran signed in June that gave them a 60-day window to negotiate a lasting peace deal technically expired Monday, and when Trump was asked if he would seek an extension, he replied: “No.” The ceasefire had been repeatedly violated in any event, with intermittent clashes continuing, and both sides had declared it defunct. Meantime, a fresh vessel attack was reported in the Strait of Hormuz. A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile heading out of the strait, causing engine-room damage and a crew casualty, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday.
CORN: December corn futures see first resistance at the July high of $4.92, then the psychological $5.00 mark. Support is at last Wednesday’s high of $4.81 1/2, with firmer support at the 10-day moving average of $4.77 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continued to push higher. Soybeans will see initial resistance at the July 29 high of $12.25, with further resistance at the July monthly high of $12.56 1/2. Support is now at the 10-day moving average of $11.96 1/2.
WHEAT: September SRW wheat futures traded higher early overnight but gave up those gains at the end of the session. Today’s price action will be important in determining if wheat aims to continue to push higher or see further profit taking from recent gains. Support is at the10-day moving average of $6.58 3/4, and resistance is at the July 30 high of $6.86 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower
HOGS: Choppy/lower
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected to open choppy to lower this morning. Cash cattle trade has been lackluster, and is offering no support to futures that are under heavy technical selling pressure.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open choppy to lower due to a combination of weakening fundamentals and pressure from cattle futures. Pork cutout slid back below the $100.00 mark and is $98.75 as of yesterday afternoon.