GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led overnight strength as optimism surrounding this weekend’s talks between the U.S. and China lifted prices, while corn and wheat reluctantly followed to the upside. Prices across the marketplace are becoming more immune to bullish headlines as the lack of concrete changes is becoming more apparent. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher on corrective buying while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points higher, continuing to hover just below par.
USDA reported a slew of daily sales announcements this morning, including 205,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 40,000 MT for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT for 2025-26, 115,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during 2024-25 and 225,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Pakistan during the 2025-26 marketing year.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social the deal that will be announced at 10 a.m. ET will be a “full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come.” He added: “Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!” The Associated Press reported the agreement is likely to fall short of a full free trade deal but will provide tariff relief to certain sectors.
Canadian wheat stocks as of March 31 totaled 15.4 MMT, according to Statistics Canada, well above pre-report expectations of 13.2 MMT. Wheat stocks unexpectedly increased 1.7 MMT (12.4%) from year-ago. Analysts expected a 3.4% decline. That could be in part due to lower exports to the U.S., which were running high over the winter months. Canadian canola stocks stood at 5.9 MMT, below expectations of 6.1 MMT and 3.7 MMT (38.6%) under year-ago.
Export sales for the week ended May 1:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.663 MMT for 2024-25 were up 64% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, Taiwan and Spain. Sales came above pre-report expectations ranging from 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 376,700 MT for 2024-25 were down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 MT for 2024-25 were down 3% from the previous week but up from the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from (100,000) to 150,000 MT. Export shipments totaled 493,500 MT.
CORN: July corn futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above psychological $4.50 support, which is reinforced by support at $4.45 3/4. Resistance comes in at $4.54 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $4.63 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures led overnight strength. Bears have struggled to find much of a footing below key support at the 40-day moving average at $10.42 3/4. The overnight low of $10.36 1/2 stands as reinforcement. Bulls are looking overcome psychological $10.50 resistance before tackling resistance at $10.56
WHEAT: July SRW futures struggle to maintain early strength overnight. Initial resistance stems from $5.36 3/4, the 10-day moving average, which capped overnight strength, which is backed by resistance at $5.42.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by discounts to the cash market, but weakness in the cash cattle market could limit gains after the open. After averaging a record $220.97 last week, cash cattle trade so far this week has averaged $218.82, according to USDA data, setting the stage for a downturn in the cash market for this week. However, much of that trade has taken place with lower quality animals and in areas where prices typically aren’t as high. Wholesale beef finished Wednesday higher as Choice rose $1.48 to $346.15 while Select climbed $1.03 to $334.00. USDA reported net beef sales of 7,600 MT for 2025, down 41% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical buying. June lean hogs continue to consolidate in a tight range and are likely to see a break either higher or lower in the next couple of days. The direction is difficult to discern given waning strength in the cash markets and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise into summer. The CME lean hog index is up another 3 cents to $90.16 as of May 6, the smallest daily gain in the extended price climb. Pork cutout slipped 16 cents to $95.54 Wednesday, led by losses in bellies and hams. USDA reported net pork sales of 24,200 MT for 2025, down 30% from the previous week but up 14% from the four-week average.