Ahead of the Open | September 22, 2021
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: 6 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn futures rose overnight in a corrective bounce following four consecutive losing sessions, while soybean futures firmed as Malaysian palm oil futures rallied over 3%. Wheat futures rose from one-week lows. Nymex crude oil futures gained over 1%, while the U.S. dollar index was little changed.
“Meaningful” rain may fall in a large part of Texas and possibly Oklahoma early next week, World Weather Inc. said. While rain would be welcome for winter wheat, there is potential it could cause fiber quality issues in open boll cotton crops in West Texas, the forecaster said. World Weather sees increased rainfall prospects for the central and western Corn Belt and the northern U.S. Plains in late September and early October.
Crop input prices are rising and already-tight supplies are getting tighter after Hurricane Ida damaged ports at the U.S. Gulf. Imports of glyphosate containers shipped into the Port of New Orleans fell 71% from the same period a year earlier, herbicide container imports fell 1.2% and potash imports into New Orleans dropped 15%, Reuters reported, citing Panjiva, the supply chain research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Argentina’s ag ministry reported the country’s producers sold 650,200 MT of soybeans over the past week, pushing total sales to 30.0 MMT, or 70% of the crop, based on Buenos Aires grains exchange estimates. Last year at this time, 65% of the crop had been sold.
India’s farmers are expected to produce a record 150.5 MMT summer grain crop this marketing year, up 0.6% from last year and led by a 2.5% projected increase in rice production, to 107.0 MMT.
CORN: December futures rose as high as $5.22 1/2 overnight. Chart levels to watch include last week’s high at $5.37 1/2 and $4.97 1/2, a five-month low hit Sept. 10, as well as the 200-day moving average around $5.09 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans rose as high as $12.78 1/2 overnight. The contract yesterday dropped to $12.57 1/2, the lowest price since $12.52 3/4 on June 18. Key downside support is seen at the June low of $12.40 1/2. Other chart levels to watch include the 200-day moving average at $12.71.
WHEAT: Dryness in the U.S. Plains remains a concern as seeding of the winter wheat crop expands. The crop was 21% planted as of Sept. 19, up from 12% the previous week, USDA reported. Chart levels to watch in December SRW futures include yesterday’s low at $6.86 and the 100-day moving average around $7.01, along with this month’s low at $6.77.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-weaker
HOGS: Steady-mixed
CATTLE: December live cattle fell 27.5 cents yesterday to $127.80 as ideas that boxed beef prices had bottomed proved premature. Choice cutout values fell $4.29 to an average of $311.37, the lowest price since Aug. 11, according to USDA data. Cash cattle trade was quiet early this week, with a light test at $124 to $126.50 in Nebraska, steady to higher compared with last week’s $124 trade for the state. USDA’s next Cattle on Feed Report Sept. 24 is expected to reflect declines in feedlot inventories. Chart levels in December live cattle include last week’s high at $130.45 and last week’s low at $125.675.
HOGS: December futures fell 62.5 cents yesterday to $73.60 as wholesale pork prices extended a recent slide. Pork cutout values fell 13 cents to $102.76, down 5.7% since the end of August. Movement was strong at 466 loads. On national direct markets, carcass values declined $1.18 to an average of $78.14. The CME Lean hog index dropped to $93.56, the lowest since March 22 but still over $9.00 above October futures. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Sept. 24 is expected to reflect further shrinkage of the U.S. herd. Chart levels to watch in December futures include last week’s high of $75.375 and last week’s low at $71.275, also a seven-month low for the contract.
