GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents lower.
Wheat: 20 to 22 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Reports of Turkey working for a Black Sea grain deal undercut grain futures late in the overnight session, spurring a ten cent sell-off in winter wheat futures. Some consolidative price action is health given the overbought conditions of the market, but volatile price action is a stark reminder that it is a headline driven market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading solidly higher this morning and at the highest mark in over a week, while the U.S. dollar index is around 120 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 159,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month as American forces hit an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran responded by launching attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Iranian media also said the country’s authorities seized a bulk carrier near the port of Bandar Abbas in the strait and claimed an oil supertanker trying to go through the waterway was hit by mines early on Monday. The incidents underline the high tensions between Washington and Tehran, with the countries still at odds over the status of the Strait of Hormuz and unwilling to restart negotiations to end a war now more than six months old,” said a Bloomberg report. Crude oil prices rose sharply, with Brent climbing 2.4% to above $90 a barrel. European natural gas prices increased too. WTI Nymex crude oil futures rose above $86 a barrel. “Several current and former U.S. and Iranian officials have said they expect the conflict to drag on for months, with the sides essentially deadlocked and bouts of fighting puncturing weeks-long lulls in hostilities,” said the report. It was a “limited, precise action,” U.S. Central Command said. “Iran created the threat and the U.S. military eliminated it to protect civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce.” Iran said several people were killed in the US strikes. Iran retaliated with a missile-and-drone attack on U.S. air bases in Jordan early Monday. Jordan’s military intercepted eight missiles, destroying them before they caused any damage, the Jordan News Agency reported.
“War, Weather Push Crop Prices to Biggest Monthly Gain Since 2012:” That’s a Bloomberg headline overnight. “Crop prices are set to cap their biggest monthly jump in more than a decade as wars and extreme weather disrupt supplies, raising concerns about food inflation. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is up more than 13% in August as of Friday, heading for the steepest gain since July 2012, with wheat, sugar, and cocoa being major drivers. Wars and extreme weather are disrupting supplies, with grain exports from Ukraine and Russia slowed, and a strengthening El Niño fueling weather worries for crops like cocoa and sugar,” said the report.
CORN: December corn is consolidating in an apparent bull-flag on the daily bar chart. Resistance is layered from $5.36 1/2 to the contract high of $5.42. Support at $5.31 1/2 is reinforced by last Thursday’s low of $5.28.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans hit a contact high before seeing profit-taking overnight. Support at the psychological $12.75 mark stands on a push lower, with reinforcement from Friday’s low of $12.69 1/4. Resistance lies at the contract high of $12.94 1/2 then the psychological $13.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat are sharply lower this morning. Support stems from Friday’s low of $7.54 3/4 then the psychological $7.50 mark. Resistance stands at the contract high of $7.90 1/4 then the psychological $8.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of Friday’s selling pressure. Weakness in the cash market continues to weigh on futures and until that slows, further selling seems likely. Last week’s cash cattle average was $218.63 going into trade on Friday, well below the average of $225.01 the week prior. Choice beef slid $5.13 to $376.23 Friday, continuing the recent slide.
HOGS: Lean hog futures broke higher Friday, closing above technical resistance and marking a weekly gain. That momentum is expected to propel prices higher again today despite persistent weakness in the cash market, as the CME lean hog index is down another 62 cents to $91.52 as of Aug. 27. Pork cutout rose $2.26 to $96.06 Friday as all cuts showed gains on the day, though movement was light at 218.7 loads.