GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw followthrough gains overnight, challenging the recent downtrends. The recent rally coming despite a lack of bullish news Monday marks a significant shift in sentiment. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged this morning while the U.S. dollar index is sharply higher following news the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected this morning.
USDA reported daily export sales totaling 150,000 MT of corn and 226,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. USDA also reported 195,000 MT of soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations, with 45,000 MT for delivery during 2024-25 and 150,000 MT for delivery during 2025-26.
Non-farm payrolls topped expectations in June as payrolls rose by 147k, following an upwardly revised 114k in May and well above forecasts of 110k. Governments jobs increased by 73k jobs over the past month, largely due to additions in education jobs at the state level. Meanwhile, the federal workforce continues to shrink. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, below 4.2% in May and defying expectations for an increase to 4.3%, signaling broad labor market stability. Interest rates were higher following the report, supporting the Fed’s cautious approach to cutting rates.
President Donald Trump is expected to tell Iowa farmers that he has “great news” for them, highlighting what he describes as significant achievements in trade policy and support for agriculture during today’s visit to the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Trump has teased that his remarks will include “some of the GREAT things I’ve already done on Trade, especially as it relates to Farmers,” promising that attendees “are going to be very happy with what I say.” His speech, which marks the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations, is also anticipated to feature: Announcements of new trade initiatives or agreements aimed at benefiting U.S. farmers; promotion of his administration’s tax and policy proposals, including the extension of tax cuts and regulatory reforms that he claims have helped farmers and small businesses; and a defense of his budget and healthcare proposals, which have sparked controversy over potential Medicaid reforms and changes to social services.
After marathon backroom negotiations, the House voted early Thursday to advance Trump’s signature “One Big Beautiful Bill” to a final vote — bringing Trump to the threshold of a major legislative victory by his July 4 deadline. The bill delivers trillions in tax cuts, enacts the first major federal spending reductions in decades, and overhauls programs like Medicaid and food stamps, dramatically shrinking the scope of the federal government. While debate on the bill is ongoing, Thursday’s procedural win signals that Trump is close to achieving the legislative breakthrough he has been pushing for ahead of Independence Day. The vote is also a key victory for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who managed deep divisions within the GOP caucus. Trump, pressing for party unity, used social media to urge Republicans to support the bill despite internal disagreements.
Export sales for the week ended June 26:
- Corn: Net sales of 532,700 MT for 2024-25 were down 28% from the previous week and 37% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea, Mexico and Colombia. Sales came in the lower end of pre-report expectations ranging from 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 462,400 MT for 2024-25, up 15% from the previous week and 62% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for unknown destinations and Egypt. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
- Wheat: Sales totaled 586,000 MT for 2025-26 and were primarily for the Philippines. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
CORN: December corn futures are challenging 40-day moving average resistance this morning. Another push higher would likely test the 100-day moving average at $4.45, which has capped most rallies since prices turned lower in April. Support comes in at $4.34 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continued higher overnight. Resistance stands at $10.60 then $10.68 1/4 on persistent strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.50 then $10.45 1/2 on a reversal lower.
WHEAT: September SRW futures stalled against 100-day moving average resistance overnight, which persists at $5.66 1/2. Strength above that mark opens the door for a test of resistance at $5.75. Support comes in at $5.56 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of the recent downtrend, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit the downside after the open. Cash cattle started trading at mostly $1.00 to $2.00 lower prices in both the Southern Plains and northern market on Wednesday. Additional trade around these levels is likely today as packers and feedlots look to wrap up negotiations ahead of the long holiday weekend. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed as Choice slid 74 cents to $380.31 while Select climbed a quarter to $380.31. USDA reported net beef sales totaling 11,400 MT for 2025, down 19% from the previous week and 9% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to pull back, though a continuation of yesterday’s technical buying cannot be ruled out. August hogs were supported by the 40-day moving average at $106.55 yesterday, which will remain key technical support. The CME lean hog index is down another 77 cents to $110.22 as of July 1, the third straight daily decline. Pork cutout fell another $1.55 to $110.75 on Wednesday, pressured by sharp losses in primal butts, ribs and bellies. USDA reported net pork sales of 21,700 MT for 2025, down 47% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average.