Ahead of the Open | November 8, 2021

( )

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 2 to 3 cents lower.

Soybeans: 3 to 6 cents lower.

Wheat: 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybean futures fell to the lowest levels in over three weeks overnight and corn futures also dropped ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Crop Production Report, which is expected to show upward revisions in both crops. Wheat futures were mixed. Malaysian palm oil and Nymex crude oil futures were both up slightly overnight. The U.S. dollar index was down slightly after reaching a 13-month high last week.

USDA reported a daily corn sale of 150,000 MT to Colombia for 2021-22.

Planting of Brazil's 2021-22 soybean crop reached 67% of the estimated area through Nov. 4, according to AgRural. That compares with 52% of the soybean area planted a week prior and 56% in the same period last year.

China's soybean imports in October fell 41% from a year earlier, reaching the lowest level since March 2020, as poor crush margins curbed demand and Hurricane Ida limited U.S. shipments. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.11 MMT of the oilseed in October, versus 8.69 MMT a year earlier, General Administration of Customs data showed.

China's meat imports in October fell from a year ago to their lowest in 20 months, customs data showed, as cheap domestic pork cut demand for overseas supplies. China brought in 664,000 MT of meat in October, down 12.8% from the same month a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs, the lowest since February 2020.

U.S. imports of agricultural products in September fell slightly to $13.97 billion, while ag exports dropped to $12 billion, the smallest total for fiscal year (FY) 2021. The result was a monthly trade deficit of $1.97 billion, the fourth straight monthly deficit. For FY 2021, U.S. ag exports totaled $172.18 billion, shy of USDA’s August forecast of $173.5 billion.

 

CORN: December corn futures overnight fell as low as $5.50 1/4, the lowest intraday price since $5.39 1/2 on Oct. 27 and the fifth consecutive daily decline. USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports tomorrow will be the biggest keys to market direction this week. USDA is expected to raise its U.S. corn crop estimate about 0.2% from an October projection to 15.05 billion bu., based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The estimated average nationwide yield is expected to increase to 176.9 bu. per acre, up 0.4 bu. from last month.

SOYBEANS: January soybean futures overnight fell as low as $11.98 1/4, the lowest intraday price since $11.95 3/4 on Oct. 13. The most-active contract fell 3.5% last week and closed at a seven-month low amid expectations for larger U.S. production and a mostly favorable start to South America’s growing season. USDA is expected boost its estimate for the U.S. soybean crop to 4.484 billion bu., based on the Reuters survey. That would be up 0.8% from the 4.448 billion bu. crop USDA projected in the October report. The average U.S. soybean yield is expected to be revised up to 51.9 bu. per acre from USDA’s 51.5-bu.-per-acre forecast in October.

WHEAT: December SRW wheat futures overnight fell as low as $7.62 1/2, a low for the month, before rebounding modestly. Wheat futures’ bearish technical performance last week – scoring contract highs, then ending lower on the week – could set the stage for further weakness, though a tighter global supply outlook may continue to lend support.

 

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Steady-mixed

HOGS: Steady-firm

CATTLE: December live cattle ended last week at $131.80, up 2.0% for the week and the highest settlement since $132.20 on Sept. 2. With December trading at a premium to cash, futures likely will need continued cash cattle and boxed beef strength to extend a five-week uptrend. Live steers in five top feedlot areas averaged $128.12 on Friday, up from $126.29 at the end of last week and the fifth consecutive weekly gain. Choice beef cutout values ended last week at $289.54, up 1.3% for the week and near a five-week high. Cattle slaughter last week totaled an estimated 650,000 head, down 2.8% from the previous week and down 0.3% from the same week a year ago. So far this year, cattle slaughter is still running 3.1% ahead of the same period in 2020.

Chart levels to watch in December live cattle futures include last week’s high at $132.40, also a two-month high, and the 100-day moving average around $131.20. December futures have yet to entirely fill a small gap on the daily chart created Nov. 3.

HOGS: Lean hog futures rose 0.6% last week for the second consecutive weekly increase and may extend gains on strengthening technicals and signs of bottoming in cash fundamentals. Pork cutout values ended last week at an average of $96.33, down from $96.52 at the end of last week but up from an eight-month low Nov. 1. The cutout market must firm further for futures to attract sustained buying interest. The CME lean hog index is up 37 cents today after dropping most of the past three months but remains at the lowest level since late February. National direct carcasses ended last week at $59.90, down from $61.70 a week ago. Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 2.611 million head of hogs last week, up 2.4% from the previous week but down 3.2% from the same week in 2020. Year-to-date, slaughter is running 2.0% under 2020 levels. Chart levels to watch include a gap between the Nov. 3 high at $76.05 and last Friday’s low at $76.275, along with last week’s high at $78.225.

 

Latest News

Ahead of the Open | March 28, 2024
Ahead of the Open | March 28, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat traded in tight ranges overnight, with grains showing relative strength into the break.

Weekly wheat sales exceed expectations, while soybeans miss
Weekly wheat sales exceed expectations, while soybeans miss

Weekly wheat sales were just above the pre-report range for the week ended March 21, while soybean sales missed the expected range by 36,000 MT. Corn sales held steady at 1.21 MMT.

First Thing Today | March 28, 2024
First Thing Today | March 28, 2024

Corn, soybeans and wheat traded in narrow ranges during the overnight session ahead of USDA’s reports later this morning.

After the Bell | March 27, 2024
After the Bell | March 27, 2024

After the Bell | March 27, 2024

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor
Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

Market Watch | March 27, 2024
Market Watch | March 27, 2024

Cash cattle prices soar to all-time high.