Ahead of the Open | November 11, 2021
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: HRW and SRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher, spring wheat 9 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures eased from multiyear highs overnight while spring wheat surged to a high for the week. Corn finished the two-sided overnight session slightly lower, while soybeans were slightly higher. Malaysian palm oil futures and Nymex crude oil futures fell slightly. The U.S. dollar index rose to the highest level since July 2020.
The U.S. government and Treasury markets are closed today for Veterans Day and no U.S. economic numbers will be released. USDA’s weekly export sales report is delayed until tomorrow.
Brazil is expected to produce a record soybean crop of 142.009 MMT, according to Brazilian crop forecasting agency Conab. Planted acreage is forecast 400,000 hectares higher than previously thought. Conab also raised its Brazilian corn crop estimate by 399,000 MT from last month to a record 116.712 MMT.
Soybean planting for the 2021-22 season is proceeding at such a fast pace that futures prices for Brazilian soy are falling and making it more competitive against its main rival, the U.S., Reuters reported. Data from consultancy Safras & Mercado show soybean port premiums at Paranagua are $1.30 per bushel for January and 50 cents per bushel for February. Last year, when the start of the harvest was delayed due to lack of rain, the port premium for February soy was $1.25 a bushel.
Japan purchased 157,987 MT of wheat from its weekly tender, including 62,364 MT U.S., 63,240 MT Canadian and 32,383 MT Australian. South Korea bought 65,000 MT of corn – likely South American or South African origin. Bangladesh tendered to buy 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans traded in a narrow range overnight, roughly in line with yesterday’s range. Bullish enthusiasm over USDA’s lower-than-expected crop estimate has been clipped by a mostly favorable start to South America’s growing season, and soybean futures likely need fresh export business to push above the post-report high of $12.40 3/4 in the January contract. Other chart levels to watch include the 20-day moving average at $12.33.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firm
HOGS: Steady-mixed
CATTLE: Initial cash cattle prices this week jumped $3 to $4 over last week, with packer demand in some areas stronger than available market-ready supplies. Continued cash strength may help boost December futures above early-week highs, but the upside may tempered by weakness in wholesale beef, with record retail beef prices likely discouraging demand. USDA reported live steers in five top feedlot areas yesterday averaged $130.00, compared to last’s week’s average of $129.23. Choice cutout values fell $2.28 yesterday to an average of $285.52, the fourth consecutive daily decline, while Select fell $4.00 to $266.62. Meatpackers slaughtered an estimated 365,000 head of cattle this week through Wednesday, equal to the same period last week and up 12,000 head from the same period a year ago. December live cattle futures yesterday fell 20 cents to $132.00. Chart levels to watch include this week’s intraday high at $132.50, also a two-month high, and the 100-day moving average around $131.25.
HOGS: Futures may see some followthrough buying from yesterday’s strong close but weak cash fundamentals likely will limit any gains. Pork cutout values fell $1.98 yesterday to an average of $90.57, the lowest daily price since $89.17 on Feb 17. Movement totaled 347 loads. Today’s CME lean hog index is down 51 cents to $78.72, near the eight-month low of $78.32 reached Nov. 3. Carcasses on national direct markets yesterday fell 57 cents to $58.09. Slaughter so far this week totaled an estimated 1.423 million head, down 1,000 head from the same period last week and down 13,000 head from the comparable period in 2020. December lean hog futures yesterday rose 75 cents to $75.70, after dropping earlier in the session to $73.70, near a two-week low. Chart levels to watch include last week’s low at $74.075 and the 20-day moving average around $75.60.
