GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 14 to 17 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to lead strength. Old-crop corn saw impressive strength this morning following higher than expected export sales. Soybeans fell under pressure due to heavy selling in the bean oil market, which kept nearby bean oil limit down most of the overnight session. Soy oil selling was brought on by concerns that the renewable diesel target for next year may be lower than expected. Front-month crude oil futures are also under pressure this morning, while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points lower.
Producer inflation plunged in April, falling 0.5% month over month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. PPI fell from a revised flat reading in March and was well below expectations of a 0.2% increase. This marked the first decline in PPI since October 2023 and is the steepest drop since April 2020. On the year, PPI slowed to 2.4%, down sharply from 3.4% in March.
Conab raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate by 470,000 MT to 168.34 MMT. The 2024-25 soybean export forecast was increased 100,000 MT to 105.96 MMT. Conab increased its Brazilian corn production forecast by 2.13 MMT to 126.87 MMT, with the safrinha crop accounting for 1.91 MMT of the rise. Despite the bigger crop estimate, Conab left its 2024-25 corn export forecast at 34 MMT.
China has suspended its export controls on rare earths and other dual-use goods targeting 28 U.S. entities, Bloomberg Government reported. The 90-day pause, effective immediately, is part of a broader trade de-escalation agreement between Washington and Beijing. According to China’s ministry of commerce, exporters can now apply for licenses to resume shipments, reversing the bans imposed in early April.
Export sales for the week ended May 8:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.677 MMT for 2024-25 were up 1% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Mexico. Sales came above pre-report expectations for the second straight week, ranging from 900,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 282,400 MT for 2024-25 were down 25% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Egypt and Indonesia. Sales were in the lower end of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 MT for 2024-25 were down 16% from the previous week but up from the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from (200,000) to 100,000 MT. Sales totaled 746,200 MT for 2025-26, above pre-report expectations. Export shipments totaled 371,400 MT.
CORN: July corn futures followed wheat higher overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome psychological $4.50 resistance before tackling the 10-day moving average at $4.52 1/2. Support comes in at $4.45 then $4.42 1/4 on a reversal back lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures saw relative weakness overnight. Prices are still within this week’s range. Support at the 10-day moving average, currently at $10.60 1/4, limited the downside overnight. Additional selling finds support at $10.54. Resistance stands at $10.65 3/4 then yesterday’s for-the-move high close of $10.77 3/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures are working higher for the third straight session. Bulls next objective is tackling the 20-day moving average at $5.34, which sees little backing until $5.43. Support comes in at $5.27 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $5.23 1/4 on a turn back lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Futures sold off on profit-taking after new highs earlier yesterday, producing key bearish reversals, but the key will be how prices finish the week and if the cash market reflects weaker futures. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed as Choice fell 74 cents to $349.36 while Select rose $1.38 to $335.85. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,600 MT for 2025, up 91% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid resurgent strength in cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up another 46 cents to $90.77 as of May 13, the second consecutive daily rise and a for-the-move high. Traders anticipate the index will continue to rise into summer as June futures hold a $8.08 premium to the index, though that is historically a fairly small premium given pork production will mark annual lows shortly after the contract’s expiration. Pork cutout firmed 12 cents Wednesday, led by strength in ribs and butts. USDA reported net pork sales of 24,600 MT for 2025, which were up 2% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average.