GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 12 to 14 cents higher.
Wheat: 6 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat surged following technically bearish closes on Thursday. A close near prices went into the break would negate chart damage done, but technical headwinds remain for the rest of today’s session. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and extending recent gains while the U.S. dollar index is consolidating near recent highs. The 10-year treasury rate at 5.13% is at fresh highs, surging 30 basis points this week, helping support the gain in the dollar.
USDA announced daily sales of 303,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 272,820 MT for delivery during 2026-27 and 30,480 MT for delivery during 2027-28. USDA also announced daily sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China, 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Vietnam and 100,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations — each during the 2026-27 marketing year.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in October, easing sharply from an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in September and below market expectations of 0.4%. Moderating energy prices eased inflation figures, though food prices increased 1.3%, marking the sharpest increase since February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, down from 0.8% in September. Annually, PPI accelerated to 6.5%, the highest since Nov. 202, while core inflation held at 5.0%.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday following revelations of an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, sparking bipartisan calls to investigate chip export policies. The scandal threatens U.S.-China trade relations ahead of next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, potentially jeopardizing a fragile trade truce that relies on pausing new tech export curbs. Already strained by disputes over rare earth minerals, rising tensions have potential implications for agricultural trade. Washington is demanding Beijing fulfill its farm purchase commitments, while China insists the U.S. must first implement their agreed "$30 billion for $30 billion” reciprocal tariff-reduction deal. Xi is expected to use the APEC summit and December’s Group of 20 gathering in Florida to press Trump on China’s red lines, Bloomberg reported, citing comments by Eurasia Group analysts.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said the “super” El Niño affecting global weather patterns continues to strengthen. “Chances for a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 are now around 60% for the October-December and November-January periods, remaining at better than even odds,” the Climate Prediction Center said in an update, down from an October estimate of 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January. NOAA ranks El Niño or La Niña events on three-month average scales. “Even with a very strong El Niño, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are higher, though not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).” Bloomberg noted that the 1982-83 event was the most severe in records dating back to 1950, based on a rolling three-month average of ocean-temperature readings.
CORN: December corn rebounded overnight. Bulls are looking to close prices back above 10-day moving average resistance at $4.46 1/2, which is reinforced by the psychological $4.50 mark. Support lies at the overnight low of $4.41 3/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans are trading near recent highs. Resistance comes in at $12.34 then $12.40 on persistent strength. Support lies at $12.21 1/4, the 10-day moving average, on profit-taking.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat found staunch resistance at the 10-day moving average at $5.96 3/4 in overnight trade. That is reinforced by the psychological $6.00 mark. Support comes in at the overnight low of $5.82 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid weaker cash cattle trade. While trade has been slow to develop so far this week, initial trade points to lower prices, which could weigh on futures. Choice beef continues to slide as well, pressuring packer margins, as it slid $2.67 to $357.59 Thursday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as the cash market continues to work lower. The CME lean hog index is down another $1.00 to $58.78 after a couple days of more modest losses. December futures are now at just modest discounts to cash, especially if big declines like today continue. Pork cutout fell 20 cents to $69.14 Thursday, led by losses in picnics and butts.