GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 9 to 12 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 9 cents lower.
Wheat: unchanged to 12 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Corn, soybean and wheat futures posted losses overnight as the market awaits highly anticipated acreage and quarterly grain stocks data from USDA at 11 a.m. CDT. In other markets, the dollar index was slightly firmer, while WTI crude oil futures were up over 1% at about $74 a barrel.
USDA’s Acreage Report is expected to show U.S. farmers planted nearly 3% more land to corn than estimated in March. Total corn plantings may rise to 93.787 million acres, based on an average of analyst estimates, up from the 91.144 million acres USDA estimated in March. The Pro Farmer survey pegged corn plantings at 93.6 million acres.
U.S. farmers boosted 2021 soybean plantings to 88.955 million acres, based on an average of analyst estimates, up 1.5% from 87.6 million acres in USDA’s March forecast. Our survey estimated soybean plantings at 88.7 million acres.
Weather updates in the top U.S. corn and soybean regions changed little from previous outlooks, with crops seen benefitting from recent rains and cooler temperatures, though some pockets remain dry with heat likely returning in July.
Some of Brazil’s major safrinha corn producing states, such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, experienced another frost overnight, with a third consecutive frost/freeze event expected tonight. Rain in northern Parana helped to reduce damage for Brazil’s second-largest corn producing state. Meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos said “harsh” frosts also reached into neighboring Paraguay.
In overnight demand news, Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer issued an international tender to buy up to 60,000 MT of corn, 60,000 MT of feed barley and 60,000 MT of soymeal. South Korean flour mills bought around 77,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in a tender.
CORN: USDA’s numbers today will set the tone for corn and soybean markets. USDA’s June 1 corn stocks are expected to come in at 4.114 billion bu., down nearly 18% from year-ago. December corn futures yesterday closed above the 10-day moving average for the first time since June 11 but dropped below it overnight. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday high of $5.59 and support is at last week’s low of $5.14 1/4 and the May low at $5.00 1/4.
SOYBEANS: Any acreage surprise could help soybean futures break out of the recent consolidation range – in either direction. Chart levels to watch include yesterday’s high at $13.27 in November futures and the June low of $12.40 1/2.
WHEAT: USDA’s report is expected to show all U.S. wheat plantings at 45.94 million acres, including other spring wheat at 11.408 million acres, based on analyst estimates.
CATTLE: Steady to weaker
HOGS: Steady-mixed
CATTLE: USDA reported some light cash cattle trade in Iowa at $126.50 yesterday, following trade at $126.50 in Nebraska on Monday. This compares to $125 to $126 last week in the northern market. Cash trade has been quiet farther to the south, where trade generally occurred around $122 last week. After a sharp, $7-plus dive for Choice boxed beef values to start the week, the grade dropped another $5.09 on Tuesday; Select fell $3.56. But an uptick in movement to 157 loads signal prices may be nearing value levels.
HOGS: Lean hog futures extended a three-day rebound yesterday, with intraday price action failing to test extended trading limits. Daily trading limits revert to $3 today. The pork cutout value fell 91 cents and movement was light at 288.91 loads on Tuesday. Cash hog bids fell a national average of $1.90 yesterday. Two days into the week, kills are lagging week-ago by 28,000 head and year-ago by 23,000 head, according to USDA estimates. Packer profit margins remain in the red, but they have been roughly halved from where they stood last week.