GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat continue to consolidate near recent lows while soybeans saw relative strength overnight. Reports of China being active in the U.S. market helped underpin soy overnight. Front-month crude oil futures are higher this morning and are trading above $95. The U.S. dollar index is up over 500 points, supported by a higher-than-expected inflation reading this morning.
USDA reported daily sales of 470,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.
The U.S. annual inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% the previous two months and above market expectations. Higher energy prices continue to lead inflation higher. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.6%, the largest gain in five months. Monthly core CPI, which removed food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, steady with August. Year-over-year, core CPI rose 2.6%, up from 2.4% a month ago. New York Fed President John Williams told Bloomberg in an interview that he still sees one more rate hike this year as appropriate, but doesn’t at the moment believe the central bank will need to raise rates again in 2027.
Chinese state buyers bought 8 to 10 Panamax cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week, Reuters reported early Wednesday, marking the first such deals since last month’s summit meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington. Reuters, citing three trade sources, said the cargoes are for shipment from December onwards. The purchases mark a round of renewed Chinese buying after a pause of several weeks tied in part to weak demand during the country’s week-long National Day holiday in early October. The report says the purchases were made by state-owned trading firms, paying premiums of $3.10 to $3.20 a bushel over January Chicago soybean futures. Each Panamax cargo carries around 65,000 metric tons, or around 2.39 million bushels, of soybeans.
The International Energy Agency on Wednesday said diesel supply will remain tight well into next year. “Falling inventories, soaring cracks, and steepening levels of backwardation have signalled the need for additional supplies,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report for October. “However, even with a rapid recovery expected in refinery throughputs into year-end, gasoil supply falls short of meeting demand in 4Q26, suggesting that the replenishment of lost inventories, outside of typical seasonal fluctuations, is unlikely before 2H27.” (The IEA uses “gasoil” as an overarching term covering diesel, heating oil, and other middle distillates.)
CORN: December corn futures continue to consolidate. Resistance stands at $4.81 1/2 then $4.88 1/4 on strength, while support stands at $4.75 on persistent selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans continue to bounce between $12.81 1/4 support and $12.91 resistance. A close outside of those levels is key in determining near-term direction.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat are trading near recent lows. Support comes in at $6.61 1/2, the 200-day moving average, on further selling pressure. Resistance stands at $6.79 3/4 on a push higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone. The cash market has been slow to develop so far this week, providing little direction to futures. Futures are in the upper end of the recent range, which could spur selling. Choice beef fell 41 cents to $375.15 Tuesday, giving up some of the recent gains.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Bulls are looking to hold support at the contract lows on persistent selling. The CME lean hog index is down another 57 cents to $75.94 as of Oct. 12. Pork cutout slid $2.29 to $80.68 Tuesday, led by losses in hams and butts.