GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led corrective strength overnight, corn pivoted near unchanged and wheat saw relative weakness, giving up a portion of recent losses. Weather continues to garner more attention of the trade. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower to start the day while the U.S. dollar index is around 10 points higher.
There are some reports surfacing from farmers and agronomists of corn pollination issues resulting from the “overly tight tassel wrap” phenomenon. The condition is not widespread but there are some pictures and commentary posted on social media and other websites. Reigning world corn-yield record holder David Hula reports he is seeing the issue in some Virginia fields and also hearing reports along the eastern seaboard. Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie says he is seeing the issue occur in parts of Illinois as corn reaches about V6 or V7 up through tassel – as the crop goes through rapid growth. “This corn is growing like crazy, putting on an inch and a half of root a day, putting on a node every three days, that type of thing. The tassel can get wrapped really tight, and usually it’s triggered by some type of stress,” said Ferrie.
Pro Farmer editors have not-so-affectionately labeled the heat and humidity that are building across the Midwest as a “Dome of Doom.” High temperatures and high heat indexes, including in the night-time hours, are garnering more attention from grain traders. Dr. Justin Glisan, state climatologist for Iowa, says even though temperatures may not rise excessively high, the heat index could become intense enough to impact crops and livestock. The National Weather Service late Tuesday said “dangerous heat is expected across portions of the central and southeastern U.S. through July.” Severe storms are possible for parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest today, and threats include a few tornadoes, damaging winds and excessive rain.
The U.S. and Japan announced late Tuesday a trade deal has been reached that will impose 15% tariffs on Japanese imports into the U.S., including automobiles, while Japan will create a $550 billion fund to make investments in the United States. President Trump called the trade deal the “largest ever.” The deal spares Japan from a threatened 25% U.S. tariff that was set to take effect next week. Under the deal, automobiles and parts would be subjected to the same 15% rate as Japan’s other exports. In return, Japan will accept cars and trucks built to U.S. motor vehicle safety standards, without subjecting them to additional requirements, which is a potentially major step to selling more U.S.-built vehicles in Japan. Trump’s post on Truth Social noted certain agricultural products were a part of the deal.
CORN: December corn futures consolidated overnight. Prices maintained yesterday’s low of $4.16 3/4, which will remain support with backing from $4.15. Resistance comes in at $4.21 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures bounced overnight. Resistance stems from Friday’s close of $10.35 3/4 then the 40-day moving average at $10.42 1/2. Support comes in at $10.25 1/2 on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: December SRW futures turned lower overnight. Gains stopped shy of key resistance at $5.71 3/4 on Tuesday, which remains a key technical target. Support comes in at $5.65 3/4 then $5.63 1/4 on persistent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid persistent, ongoing technical strength, though the lack of fresh support in cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. Cash cattle trade remains abysmal so far this week, not unusual with weeks that are capped with the Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef ended Tuesday mixed as Choice cutout climbed 43 cents to $372.50 while Select slipped another $2.11 to $347.94.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals continue to support prices. While nearby futures continue to push to new highs, deferred contracts have been capped by persistent technical resistance, which could lead to profit-taking. The CME lean hog index is up another 39 cents to $108.59 as of July 21. Pork cutout slipped $1.37 to $118.15 Tuesday as all cuts except hams and picnics posted losses on the day. While prices slipped, movement rose to 341.53 loads, indicating strong demand at lower prices.