GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: 8 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat are each trading near recent lows with wheat leading the way lower this morning. Each are near key technical support, which could provide relief bounces, but bearish momentum is building. Front-month crude oil futures are trading higher this morning alongside the U.S. dollar index, which is up around 500 points.
USDA reported daily export sales of 252,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Neither Iranian media nor U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported any strikes hitting inside Iran overnight, marking a change from Wednesday night when the U.S. launched a “heavy wave of strikes” targeting the country. “That wave, the first in almost a week, was a retaliatory response to Iran’s attempted attack on U.S. military positions the previous day, so strikes halting for now perhaps indicates that response is complete. Meanwhile, the Iranian Army claimed it had targeted military infrastructure at Kuwait’s Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base overnight, according to Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB. Kuwaiti authorities have not publicly confirmed the attack. Meantime, the Saudi Arabia defense ministry said Thursday that 14 countries have backed the kingdom’s proposal to establish a “Maritime Defense Alliance” to protect international shipping routes and global trade, according to CNN. Reports overnight also said President Trump announced the U.S. has reached a peace deal with Hamas.
A Ukrainian drone attack caused “significant damage” to a Russian grain export terminal on the Kerch Strait, Reuters reported on Thursday, the latest in a series of attacks between the two countries that have targeted grain shipping and infrastructure and raised concerns about exports out of the Black Sea region. The report said the terminal has a capacity of 5 million metric tons. Shipping in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch strait, which handled around a quarter of Russian grain exports, has been halted due to drone attacks since June 10. Russia has targeted Ukrainian shipping and ports near Odesa. Meantime, Ukraine on Friday struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, threatening to disrupt fuel supplies again as strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure resumed. “Ukraine’s Security Service said on Telegram that it targeted facilities at Lukoil PJSC’s refinery in the Volgograd region, without indicating the extent of the damage. Kyiv has intensified attacks on Russian refineries this year, helping drive the country’s crude processing rates to multiyear lows and contributing to a nationwide fuel shortage this summer, said a Bloomberg report.
The U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is headed for its worst week in three months on concerns the Federal Reserve won’t move forcefully enough to contain inflation. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index is on course for a 1.2% slump in the past five days. While the gauge recovered some ground today, it remains near the weakest level in over a month. “The greenback’s retreat despite higher U.S. bond yields — which would typically support the currency — reflects angst over the Fed’s credibility. Chair Kevin Warsh is facing scrutiny after his messaging stoked worries that the central bank may hold off raising rates and allow inflation to remain above target. Long-dated Treasury yields are at their highest since 2007,” said Bloomberg.
CORN: December corn futures continue to work lower. Prices are near support at $4.65 1/2, the 40-day moving average. Additional selling finds support at $4.60. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.68 then $4.72 1/2 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are trading near the 40-day moving average at $11.88 1/2. That marks a key pivot today. Support comes in at $11.75 on continued selling, while resistance stands at $12.00 on a bounce.
WHEAT: September SRW wheat futures are trading near recent lows. Bulls are looking to hold psychological support at $6.50, while additional support lies at $6.43 1/2, the 40-day moving average, on persistent selling. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $6.64 1/4 on a turn higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls are garnering an advantage on the daily bar chart, particularly in fats, which are boasting solid gains from last week’s low. Cash trade remains slow so far this week with very little trade taking place. Choice beef slid another $2.93 to $360.50 Thursday but is near support at $360.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Prices are breaking down on the daily bar chart as prices broke below support on Thursday. The cash market turning lower likely spurred selling in futures. The CME lean hog index is down a penny to $98.44 as of July 29. Pork cutout has sustained selling recently as well, as cutout fell another 14 cents to $101.64.