GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 11 to 13 cents lower.
Soybeans: 16 to 19 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 19 to 22 cents lower; HRS 12 to 14 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat are breaking down on the daily bar chart, giving bears the technical advantage. The tone has quickly shifted in commodities and grains are threatening to enter a downtrend barring an intraday reversal. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points lower.
“Trump-Xi Summit Goes Big on Pomp But Small on Substance:” That’s an overnight headline from Bloomberg. “President Trump’s fete for China’s Xi Jinping has been heavy on pageantry and platitudes but light on substantive announcements,” said the report. “Through Thursday evening in Washington, the most significant news tied to the gathering was announced before it even began, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said just as Xi’s plane landed that the two sides had extended a trade truce for another two months. Anticipated agreements on tariff cuts and a new line of communication on artificial intelligence have yet to be announced, and Chinese stocks in Hong Kong declined, suggesting traders saw a lack of progress.” Expectations were low going into the summit that it would produce breakthroughs on major disagreements. “Commodities markets are looking for specifics on trade in agriculture and energy between the two powers, including Chinese purchases of U.S. crops and natural gas. So far, details haven’t materialized, leaving traders awaiting further statements from Washington and Beijing,” said another report from Bloomberg.
Brent crude fell toward $105 and WTI toward $92 per barrel on Friday, snapping a two-day rally amid reports the U.S. and Iran are considering a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Efforts to reach a breakthrough were reportedly underway on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with Qatari officials mediating the talks. A sequenced deal would be similar to the memorandum of understanding that the US and Iran struck in mid-June, which led to a fragile ceasefire that collapsed just weeks later. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a group of journalists and academics that his country offered the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if certain conditions were met, said a Bloomberg report. Iran has maintained that it must retain control over Hormuz and would not accept a deal unless the U.S. eases military pressure and removes its blockade.
“As yields on U.S. Treasuries soar past one high after the next, a reality is sinking in deeper across Wall Street and Washington: More than merely a bond-market slump, this might just be a fundamental shift,” said a Bloomberg report. “Myriad forces have combined to push the government’s borrowing costs higher — from $100-a-barrel oil and the AI spending boom, to yawning U.S. budget deficits adding to a record $40 trillion debt load — all against a backdrop of a Federal Reserve bent on cooling inflation that’s run well past target for years.” The selling pressure intensified this week as energy prices rose early on, and data showed U.S. businesses are humming along, giving an already hawkish central bank more reasons to keep raising interest rates. Now, nearly all U.S. benchmark yields are hovering around or above 5%, with five-year Treasuries surpassing that threshold on Wednesday for the first time since 2007.
CORN: December corn futures are breaking down on the daily bar chart. Support lies at $5.14 1/2 on continued selling pressure, which sees little reinforcement until the $5.00 mark. Resistance stands at $5.25 then $5.27 on a turn higher.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans are trading in the lower end of the recent range. Support stands at $13.00 then $12.92 on a continued slide. Bulls are looking to break prices back above the 10-day moving average at $13.13.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat are breaking down on the daily bar chart. Next support lies at $6.82 3/4. Bulls are looking to reclaim the psychological $7.00 mark on a reversal higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of Thursday’s selling pressure. Cash cattle trade continues to pick up at modestly weaker prices than last week, which is expected to weigh on futures. Feedlots have held out for higher bids that have not yet shown up. Choice beef slid another $1.19 to $376.12 Thursday, extending the recent pullback.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher following the bullish Hogs & Pigs report. USDA indicated the hog herd is 98% of year ago, tighter than expectations of 99%. Hogs kept for breeding came in at 99%, in line with expectations, while hogs kept for marketing slid to 98%, below expectations. Hogs & Pigs data showed the implications of persistent disease pressure, killing hogs early. Futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart amid persistent losses in the cash market. The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $82.20 as of Sept. 23, extending the seasonal slide. Pork cutout fell 72 cents to $86.10 Thursday, extending the recent slide.