GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains saw early gains overnight but turned lower going into the break. Options expiration is tomorrow for July futures, which could suppress volatility the next couple days. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is down around 50 points.
PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-over-month in May, less than the expected 0.5% increase but matching the April figure. Inflation in goods eased while services prices increased more than they did in April. Year-over-year, PCE rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in May, in line with expectations and matching forecasts. Year-on-year, Core PCE edged up to 3.4% from 3.3% previously, the highest since late 2023. The Federal Reserve still has an uphill battle to fight inflation.
The Brent crude oil futures market has erased all of its wartime gains after flows through the Strait of Hormuz ramped up following progress on a US-Iran peace deal. The global benchmark pushed lower for a fourth session, dropping below $72.48 a barrel — its prewar closing price — before fluctuating around that level. West Texas Intermediate hovered below $70. “Key parts of the market are suddenly awash with supply, with buyers inundated by offers from the Middle East, a dramatic reversal that’s led to widespread price weakness. The retreat marks the culmination of a dramatic few months for oil, in which futures topped $125 a barrel and real-world barrels soared to records, only to subsequently collapse. Price forecasts for a worst-case scenario were avoided thanks to slumping demand — particularly in China — as well as pipeline workarounds in the Middle East and massive releases from emergency stockpiles,” said a Bloomberg report.
Export sales for the week ended June 18: Corn: Net sales of 743,100 MT for 2025-26, down 36% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Mexico and Japan led sales. Sales were in the lower end of expectations ranging from 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT. Soybeans: Net sales of 455,400 MT for 2025-26, up 7% previous week and 50% from the four-week average. Unknown destinations led sales. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 MT. Wheat: Net sales of 504,500 MT for 2026-27. Mexico and Japan led sales. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: July corn futures slid to a fresh contract low overnight. Prices looked primed to stick near the psychological $4.00 mark ahead of the July option expiration Friday. That level marks key support, while resistance stands at $4.11 3/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures are near recent lows. Support comes in at $11.02 1/2 on persistent selling pressure. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $11.20 on a bounce.
WHEAT: July SRW wheat are trading near the June lows. Stiff support persists at $5.80 on persistent selling. Resistance comes in at $5.92 1/4 on a bounce, but prices are facing persistent, methodical selling pressure on the daily bar chart after last week’s failure at the 40-day moving average.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher amid technical buying. Futures were supported by 10-day moving average support Wednesday, which is likely to underpin futures again today. Cash trade is also supportive, as trade has averaged $260.00 so far this week. Choice beef slid $1.37 to $398.94 Wednesday, sliding below the psychological $400 mark once again.
HOGS: Hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure. Technical resistance capped early strength and a breakout seems unlikely ahead of today’s Hogs & Pigs report. The CME lean hog index rose 38 cents to $91.95 as of June 23, ending the recent string of losses. Pork cutout slid $1.39 to $93.86 Wednesday, led by losses in bellies.