GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 11 to 13 cents lower.
Wheat: 5 to 8 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade and are giving up most of yesterday’s gain. Downtrends remain intact on the daily bar charts and a close lower today would cement bears’ advantage. Front-month crude oil futures are trading lower again this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 15 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.
President Trump is pushing Iran to reach a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz as soon as today or face devastating air strikes. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday, according to Bloomberg. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex,” Trump said. This is a “last chance” for Iran to come to an agreement, the president said, after he called off what he described as a major attack on the Islamic Republic over the weekend that would have likely involved Israel. A diplomatic resolution appears to hinge on talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships sailing through the strait. There’s little sign of progress in those negotiations and Iran continues to take a hard line on the waterway. It insists it has the right to manage maritime traffic and attack vessels that try to sail through the chokepoint without seeking its permission. Brent crude rose 1.8% today to $85.29 a barrel. It’s still down about 5% this week after Trump, on Saturday, said he’d hold off on fresh strikes and give diplomacy more time. Reads a Bloomberg headline today: “Hormuz Traffic at a Trickle as Ship Attacks Heighten Concerns.”
USDA Monday afternoon said the percentage of the U.S. corn crop rated good or excellent fell to 61% as of Sunday, down from 63% the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected no change. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI) (0-to-500 scale, 500 equals perfect), which provides a single, production-weighted figure, saw a 3.72-point decline to 360.67, as sharp declines in the western to northwestern Corn Belt offset steady to slightly higher condition ratings in the southeastern U.S. Nebraska and North Dakota notched the largest declines of 1.77 points and 0.99 points, respectively. USDA said 63% of the U.S. soybean crop was rated good or excellent, unchanged from last week. Analysts had expected a one-point improvement. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans fell 0.77 point to 364.32. Condition changes were very minor in most states, and changes were mixed across regions. Soybeans are entering their crucial weather stage this week, making the next few weeks’ reports of particular importance for the crop. U.S. spring wheat rated good or excellent rose to 55%, up from 53% a week ago, defying expectations for a one percentage point slip. But the CCI rose just 0.22-point in response to the state-level ratings changes, as declines in the top-producing state of North Dakota negated nearly all of the increases in Montana and South Dakota. Read more about state- and national-level crop ratings and CCI here.
CORN: December corn futures opened higher but have since turned lower. Bulls are looking to hold support at $4.68 3/4 then $4.66 on persistent weakness. Resistance stands at $4.71 3/4 then the overnight high of $4.75 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are sharply lower. Support stands at yesterday’s low of $11.75 1/4 on continued selling pressure. Resistance comes in at $11.88 1/4 then the overnight high of $11.92 1/4.
WHEAT: September SRW wheat futures reversed lower off the 10-day moving average, which stands as resistance at $6.57. Bulls are looking to hold support at $6.43 1/4, the 40-day moving average, which is reinforced by yesterday’s low of $6.32.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected lower driven by technical selling. The 200-day moving average has capped gains the past three sessions and remains key resistance moving forward. Cash cattle trade climbed $2.58 to $233.06 last week, ending the string of recent losses. Choice beef surged $5.35 to $366.73 Monday, exhibiting strength alongside the cash cattle market.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer amid technical buying. Futures are trading near recent lows but strong support remains under the market. The CME lean hog index is down another 55 cents to $97.68 as of July 31, extending the recent slide. Pork cutout meanwhile bounced 90 cents to $100.91 Monday, led by strength in bellies and hams.