Ahead of the Open | Grains heavily oversold

Corn, soybeans and wheat each slid to fresh for-the-move lows overnight, with selling efforts peaking into the break.

Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
Pro Farmer Ahead of the Open
(Lindsey Pound)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 5 to 7 cents lower.

Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents lower.

Wheat: 12 to 15 cents lower.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each slid to fresh for-the-move lows overnight, with selling efforts peaking into the break. Bears continue to hold the technical advantage, but prices look poised for a bounce as each market is heavily oversold on the daily bar chart. Front-month crude oil futures are consolidating after yesterday’s reversal off for-the-move highs. The U.S. dollar index is around 20 points lower, near support.

USDA reported daily export sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 165,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2026-27 marketing year.

A wet start to harvest season slowed activity from eastern Nebraska to Iowa into Michigan, but drier weather has allowed corn and soybean harvest to ramp up, while soft red winter wheat planting has proceeded near the usual pace. Rain during the next 10 days will be minimal over much of the region, allowing fieldwork to advance well around some mostly light precipitation Sunday into next Tuesday, according to World Weather Inc. Soil moisture remains favorable in most wheat areas, the forecaster noted, with exceptions from southeastern Missouri into portions of west-central Indiana and into central Kentucky.

Iowa’s congressional delegation is asking the Trump administration to consider Iowa’s pork producers when conducting trade talks with Mexico, Agri-Pulse reported. Mexico launched a trade investigation into the U.S. pork industry after the U.S. ended an agreement last year that suspended antidumping duties on imports of fresh Mexican tomatoes. “The looming threat of retaliation from our number one export market creates a chilling effect on the pork industry that already faces headwinds domestically due to state regulations like California’s Proposition 12,” the delegation, led by Republican Sen. Charles Grassley, wrote.
USDA on Wednesday said in an X post that it plans to resume cattle imports from Mexico at ports in Columbus, New Mexico, on Oct. 26 if conditions for safe trade are in place, and Nogales, Arizona, on Nov. 30, if conditions for safe trade are in place. Horse imports at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, are planned to resume on Oct. 26, USDA said. Livestock imports resumed in Douglas, Arizona, in August and in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, last month. USDA announced a phase-in reopening of the border earlier this year after halting imports last year in an effort to keep out the New World Screwworm parasite.

CORN: December corn futures look to test support at $4.50. Prices hit the lowest mark since July overnight. A bounce looks to overcome resistance at $4.70 1/4.

SOYBEANS: November soybeans slid to a or-the-move low overnight. Bulls are eyeing support at $12.40 1/4, the 100-day moving average, then $12.24 1/4 on continued weakness. Resistance comes in at $12.50 then $12.65 on strength.

WHEAT: December SRW wheat hit fresh lows overnight. Bulls are eyeing support at $6.25 on continued selling. Tentative resistance lies at $6.40, which is reinforced by resistance at $6.50 on corrective strength.

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/lower.

HOGS: Choppy/higher.

CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as prices have entered the upper end of the ongoing uptrend. Technical headwinds are expected to stall gains, but strength in cash fundamentals could continue to underpin futures. Strength in cash cattle the past couple weeks is expected to continue, but trade has yet to initiate this week and could be pushed late in the week with the monthly Cattle on Feed report coming Friday. Choice beef rose $1.72 to $373.30 Tuesday, bouncing from recent losses.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Futures stalled near 10-day moving average resistance Tuesday, which provides technical headwinds today, but strength in the cash market could ignite further buying. While the CME lean hog index is down another 38 cents to $73.02, the internals of the index point to modest strength. If that cash strength is sustained, that could be the catalysts bulls are looking for to re-enter the market. Pork cutout slid another 86 cents to $78.53 Tuesday, extending the recent slide.

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