GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside in overnight trade. Prices are off recent lows ahead of today’s reports from USDA, which are known for giving surprises. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is down around 260 points.
USDA reported daily sales of 105,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
The PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August following a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July and slightly below expectations of 0.4%. Goods prices increased 0.3%, led by increases in fuel costs. The core PCE price index, which excludes fuel and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month, lower than expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year, PCE inflation held at 3.4%, steady with a month ago, while core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained at 3.0%.
The National Weather Service today said tropical moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf into the southern Plains and central Rockies/central High Plains and into the upper Midwest will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region into Thursday. Considerable flash flooding is possible in some areas, especially across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa today. Flooding impacts may also be possible starting today across central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches, with locally higher totals, is expected, with the heaviest rain across southern Iowa and the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and Thursday.
Today at 11 a.m. CT comes the release of USDA’s latest quarterly Grain Stocks Report, including final stock figures for the 2025-26 marketing year for corn and soybeans and details on first-quarter wheat use. The trade sees corn stocks coming in modestly below USDA’s September WASDE figure after use remained strong going into the final month of the marketing year, notes Pro Farmer’s Lane Akre. The key, he writes, will be how the Feed & Residual figure stacks up. USDA has Feed & Residual at a record 6.35 billion bushels for the marketing year. USDA will give its final update to 2025 production in this report as well. Analysts pegged 2025 production at 17.003 billion bushels, a modest revision to USDA’s latest figure of 17.021 billion bushels. The drop in production explains analysts drop in ending stocks. See: What to expect from USDA’s September 30 Reports. USDA today will also publish the Annual Small Grains report, detailing 2026-27 wheat production, along with production figures for oats, barley and rye.
CORN: December corn futures are trading higher and are looking to topple support at $5.27. Support comes in at $5.22 then the 40-day moving average at $5.16 1/4 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans continue to bounce. Resistance stands at $13.08 1/4 on continued strength. Bulls are looking to hold support at $13.00, which is reinforced by support at $12.88 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat bounced to $7.00 resistance, which is reinforced by moving average resistance layered from $7.07 to $7.14. Support comes in at $6.82 3/4 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective strength. Futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart but are in the lower end of that range. Cash cattle trade remains slow to start the week with very little trade taking place. Slaughter ran modestly above last week’s abysmal figure yesterday but week to date is still below last week. Choice beef rose $2.18 to $382.66 yesterday, supported by shorter supplies.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart but saw some corrective strength on Tuesday. Futures are trading well below the cash market which could spur corrective buying. The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $80.94 as of Sept. 28. Pork cutout fell 3 cents to $87.77 Tuesday, led by losses in picnics and loins, though bellies jumped $6.73.