GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade with corn trading right on key support. Markets are awaiting key stocks reports out tomorrow so a big move ahead of that does not seem likely. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower on profit-taking while the U.S. dollar index is around 260 points lower.
U.S. weather this week will be dry in much of the Midwest, Delta, southern Plains, northeastern states and southwestern desert areas, reported World Weather Inc. Sunday evening. A few brief showers will occur in the northern and west-central U.S. Plains and in the eastern Canada Prairies Tuesday and Wednesday, with rainfall less than 0.50 inch. Greater rain will evolve in the northern Plains and a part of the upper Midwest next weekend, with rainfall of 1.00 to 2.00 inches from northern Nebraska to eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota. U.S. Midwest rainfall will include scattered showers and thunderstorms briefly early to mid-week next week with limited impact on soil moisture or fieldwork. Other areas in the United States and Canada’s Prairies were largely dry, although late season monsoonal rain fell in the southwestern U.S. desert region, producing 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rain in central Arizona, while lighter amounts occurred in cotton areas. Temperatures will be well above normal in the U.S. Plains, Canada’s Prairies and Midwest this week, with some cooling likely next week that will bring temperatures down to a more seasonably warm bias, said the forecaster.
The top U.S. congressional leaders will meet with President Trump at the White House today to discuss a short-term spending bill ahead of the deadline to avoid a federal government shutdown on Wednesday. Democrats are insisting that the bill must include an extension of health-care subsidies and a restoration of budget cuts to health care. Republicans say negotiations for those issues can happen after averting a shutdown. The bill would only fund the government until mid-November and must pass before Oct 1. Republicans need at least some Democrats to back the short-term bill in the Senate. The U.S. dollar is under pressure to start the week, due to the government shutdown uncertainty. Trump has raised the stakes by threatening permanent dismissals of unfunded “non-essential” federal workers in the event of a shutdown, breaking with decades of precedent that has typically allowed furloughed employees to return after funding resumes. Gold prices surged to a record high overnight on safe-haven demand. However, the U.S. stock indexes posted decent gains overnight.
OPEC-plus will likely raise its oil output again in November as the cartel continues its strategy to reclaim global market share, according to a Bloomberg report. The alliance will consider adding at least as much as the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for October when it meets online Oct. 5. No final decision has been made yet, and deliberations could still evolve ahead of the meeting, said the Bloomberg report. Still, the planned October OPEC-plus hike is sharply lower than the increments the group announced in the two prior months, and delegates emphasized at the time that the actual supply boost would be even smaller because some countries lack the ability to increase. Nymex crude oil prices are under pressure to start the trading week, due in part to the OPEC news.
CORN: December corn are trading near key support at $4.19 1/2, the 40-day moving average. A close below that mark would indicate a technical breakdown on the daily bar chart. Resistance stands at $4.23 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans continue to trade in a tight sideways range on the daily bar chart. Support stands at $10.05 while bulls are seeking to close prices above resistance at $10.19 1/4 on a push higher.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat saw modest selling pressure overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $5.15 while resistance stands at $5.23 1/4 on resurgent strength.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone supported by technical buying. The 40-day moving average has been robust support for the past several weeks and limited selling interest late last week. Bulls look to build strength off that level again, but cash trade continues to push lower, with last week’s cash average likely posting a sizeable drop. Wholesale beef losses continue to push packer margins lower with Choice cutout falling another 54 cents to $371.43 Friday while Select sunk $1.01 to $352.44.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls remain in full control of the technical edge, though some profit-taking could limit gains after the open as futures remain at contract highs. Action in the CME lean hog index remains choppy, as the index is down 23 cents to $104.83 as of Sept. 25. Still, relative strength persists in the index during this historically seasonally weak period. Pork cutout saw impressive strength on Friday with each cut posting gains, with cutout moving $2.53 higher to $113.52.