GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: 8 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led weakness overnight as July futures nearly tagged the contract low, while corn and soybeans followed to the downside. The weather outlook remains favorable for each crop, which has spurred recent selling pressure. Outside markets are quiet this morning as equity futures, front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are all trading near unchanged.
China has quietly begun de-escalating its trade conflict with the U.S., reportedly exempting most U.S.-origin semiconductors from its 125% retaliatory tariffs, effective April 24. Domestic media outlet Caijing broke the story, citing chip industry insiders and importers, before the report was removed — though multiple sources have confirmed the exemption. Tariffs paid between April 10 and 24 will also be refunded. Additionally, a rumored tariff exemption list — circulating since last Thursday — includes pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and equipment, jet engines and other key U.S. industrial exports. The items reportedly account for about $45 billion, or 30%, of China’s 2024 imports from the United States. If verified, the rollback signals Beijing’s willingness to reduce tensions and opens the door for reciprocal moves from Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said a trade deal can take months, but a de-escalation and an agreement in principle can be achieved sooner and would keep tariffs from ratcheting back to the maximum level.
South Korean and U.S. officials agreed on a framework for future discussions on tariffs and will continue talks this week, the trade ministry in Seoul said, according to Bloomberg. Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun requested the U.S. exempt South Korea from all new tariffs in the future. Ahn also asked for exemption from reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, including those on cars and steel. The discussions focused on achieving a “mutually beneficial” trade balance between two countries, trade ministry said.
Most U.S. crop areas will get rain at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks with periods of sunshine and warm weather also expected. World Weather Inc. says rains will be favorable for spring planting and winter crop development in the Plains, Midwest and Delta during the next 10 days because of greater rain in the drier areas and less rain in the wetter areas.
CORN: July corn futures trended lower overnight. The downside was capped by last week’s low of $4.77 1/4, which remains firm support. That is backed by $4.75. Bulls are looking to break prices back above 10-day moving average resistance at $4.83 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures traded lower overnight. Prices are at risk of falling back into the sideways range that capped most of the price action in mid-March. Support stands at the psychological $10.50 mark, which coincides with the 10-day moving average, while bulls are looking to challenge resistance at $10.62.
WHEAT: July SRW futures led weakness overnight. Support stems from the contract low of $5.32 1/2, which is reinforced by the psychological $5.25 mark. Bulls are looking to closed prices back above resistance at $5.40, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $5.47 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher after reports of firmer cash cattle trade on Friday. After seeing little cash trade most of the week, which caused sideways consolidation in futures, cash cattle broke higher on Friday, trading around $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Last week’s cash average, released later this morning, could challenge the record of $212.76. While packers have been managing negative margins and cutting slaughter counts, obligations to produce enough beef to meet retailer demand has them continuing to bid up for supplies. Beef cutout ended Friday sharply higher, with Choice cutout climbing $2.78 to $336.48 while Select rose $3.76 to $320.11.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Cash fundamentals continue to lead strength, with cutout and the CME lean hog index both working higher. Cutout is nearing the upper end of the recent sideways range after rising $2.13 to $98.04 on Friday, led by a $9.75 surge in primal bellies. The CME lean hog index is up another 27 cents to $87.54 as of April 24, the seventh consecutive daily gain. Gains in the index have waned in recent days as the negotiated market has seen little trading. Key will be how cash prices fare in the next couple days.