GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat favored the downside overnight and are both below support, which could spur technical buyers on the open. Soybeans favored the upside after opening lower. Export sales for each were poor this morning, a bearish sign the higher dollar and higher prices could be crimping demand. Front-month crude oil futures are higher on corrective buying this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 165 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that he and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to extend the trade truce reached in South Korea last fall for two months, to Jan. 10. “I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don’t know whether we will just roll the current deal,” Bessent said, according to Bloomberg. There’s also much attention on whether China will signal a commitment to what the White House has said is a pledge to buy $17 billion in non-soybean agricultural goods on a pro-rated basis this calendar year, on top of its purported pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, 2027 and 2028. China has been a regular U.S. soybean buyer over the past several weeks, booking more than half of its alleged commitment. Beijing has never publicly affirmed the size of any purchase commitments.
An internal Trump administration battle over whether to ban U.S. diesel exports appeared to play out in media reports Wednesday. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reiterated his opposition to the prospect of a ban in remarks Wednesday morning, saying it would be a “blunt tool” that wouldn’t work in terms of lowering U.S. prices. That’s an argument that’s been voiced by numerous energy analysts, who contend a ban, while aiming to lower record domestic diesel prices, would potentially do more harm than good. But a Politico report said the administration was preparing a 90-day export ban, despite splits within the administration. The report said that in addition to Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum have argued against an export ban. However, Reuters later reported that a White House official described the Politico report as not accurate. Then Wright, who was attending a series of events on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, told the Wall Street Journal that the administration wouldn’t stop all exports of diesel but would implement restrictions as part of a voluntary plan. Wright offered few details. Diesel futures fell in response to speculation over potential export curbs, with front-month Nymex diesel down 3.4% at $4.7764 a gallon. AAA pegged the current national average for road diesel at $6.5217 a gallon, near the recently set record high.
Export sales for the week ended Sept. 17:
Corn: Net sales of 838,300 MMT for 2026-27 were primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales were at the lower end of expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 582,400 MMT for 2025-26 were primarily for China and Japan. Sales were well below expectations ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 MMT.
Wheat: Net sales of 267,600 MT for 2026-27, down 18% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average. Mexico and Vietnam led sales. Sales were below expectations ranging from 350,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: December corn poked below the 20-day moving average overnight. A close below $5.28 would be bearish, with support at $5.25 below that mark. Resistance stands at $5.32 1/4 on a turn higher.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans bounced off support overnight. Bulls are looking to hold prices above uptrend support at $13.10. Resistance lies at $13.25 then $13.35 1/2.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat continue to break lower. Support stands at the psychological $7.00 mark. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $7.12 on a reversal higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength, but technical resistance could limit gains after the open. Futures have been reluctant to push above the cash market lately. Cash cattle trade remains slow to develop so far this week. Choice beef slid $1.58 to $377.31 Wednesday, giving up some of the recent gains.
HOGS: Lean hog futures have closed higher for three consecutive session but are running into technical headwinds. The CME lean hog index is down another 45 cents to $82.47, extending the seasonal decline. Pork cutout slid $1.17 to $86.82 Wednesday as all cuts posted losses on the day. Traders are looking to this afternoon’s Hogs & Pigs report, which is expected to show the hog herd at 99.2% of year ago.