GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans: 4 to 8 cents higher
Wheat: 6 to 10 cents higher
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures saw strength in the overnight, supported by news that tensions in the Black Sea were rising once again over the weekend.Corn and soybeans capitalized on the spillover strength to end the overnight slightly higher as well. The U.S. dollar index is mildly firmer this morning but still remains near seven-week lows. Front-month West Texas crude futures are roughly $1.50 higher and currently trading around $79.80.
USDA reported flash sales of 105,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Turkey temporarily halted Black Sea transits for its vessels over the weekend amid heightened security risks related to the Ukraine-Russia military actions in the region. However, Turkey resumed shipping in the region on Sunday, said Bloomberg. The country’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, called for a “moratorium” on attacks in the region. That followed an announcement Friday by Ukraine that its exports of agricultural products in the 2026-27 marketing year could fall by more than half compared with previous estimates, due to Russian attacks.
President Trump signaled he’s now prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes, saying the U.S. was only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told Axios in an interview on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg, saying that a U.S. naval blockade of the country was deepening its financial woes. “We are low-keying it.” The president’s comments mark a shift from his repeated threats to escalate the bombing campaign against Iran and come amid lingering talks between the Islamic Republic and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping. Tehran has said it’s nearing a deal on the waterway while laying out a long list of demands for Washington before shipping can resume, including the lifting of sanctions and an end to attacks on Iran-backed groups across the Middle East. Tehran also elevated a hard-line former commander to its top security post over the weekend.
A typhoon that struck the Chinese coast on Sunday is steadily weakening after making landfall but is set to bring widespread heavy rain through this week that could threaten crops, said a Bloomberg report. Typhoon Dolphin has weakened to a tropical storm after making two landfalls in eastern China on Sunday evening, according to the China Meteorological Administration. Powerful winds and intense rains had triggered widespread transport disruptions, including the closure of Shanghai’s two main airports. The weather system is continuing to move northwards, posing a “potentially significant inland rainfall event” that could damage farmlands, said James Caron, director of meteorological operations for North America and Asia at Atmospheric G2. Heavy rain “at this point in the growing season” can be damaging rather than beneficial, he said. Key crops in the region like corn and barley begin their harvests in August, while soybean crops are harvested beginning September. “The strong winds and rain will cause crop flooding and lodging, fruit cracking and drop, and damage to agricultural and fishery facilities, hindering the harvesting of ripe fruits,” the weather agency said in a bulletin published on Monday morning.
CORN: December corn futures look for support at last week’s low close of $4.60. Weakness below that mark finds support at $4.56 3/4. Resistance stands at $4.70. Initial resistance stems from the 100-day moving average of $4.67, then the psychological $4.75 mark.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures were slightly firmer overnight. Support comes in at $11.75 then $11.68 1/4 from the 100-day moving average. Bulls are eyeing resistance at the 40-day moving average of $11.86.
WHEAT: September SRW wheat futures are higher in overnight trade. Futures pushed above the 40-day moving average of $6.42 3/4 which should act as support now. Initial resistance stems from last weeks intraday high of $6.59 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher
HOGS: Choppy/lower
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected to open higher as firming cash cattle trade last week spurred momentum. USDA will provide the weekly cash average later this morning, but through Thursday trade was up $2.22 from the previous weekly average in steers for slaughter. Downbeat economic news on Friday in the form of a lackluster jobs report did not damage futures on Friday, but could act as a headwind this week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open choppy to lower, continuing the price downtrend despite Friday’s mild bounce. The most recent CME lean hogs index is down 29 cents to $96.66. While pork cutout is performing relatively well compared to the usual sharper seasonal downtrend at this time, it has not offered futures much strength.