GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight with corn following to the upside. Both are trading near recent highs. Wheat saw relative weakness, though the downside was limited. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged while the U.S. dollar index is around 165 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 100,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia and 195,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations, each during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--Kuwait declares further force majeure on oil shipments
--Citi sees oil at $110 if Hormuz disruption lasts another month
--Crude oil prices don’t presently reflect scale of the supply hit, analysts say
--UN agency prepares Hormuz evacuation plan for hundreds of ships
--Asia’s largest oil buyers are running low on Hormuz alternatives
“The U.S. made halting progress toward a second round of talks with Iran to end a war that’s spread through the Middle East, killed thousands of people and thrown energy markets into turmoil,” said Bloomberg today. President Trump said Vice President, JD Vance is ready to leave for negotiations in Islamabad but threatened to return to conflict if Iran doesn’t make a deal. For its part, Tehran didn’t confirm who, if anyone, would travel to the Pakistani capital. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation during the first round of talks earlier this month, said his country would not “accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.” Trump said a two-week ceasefire with Iran will end on Wednesday evening Washington time and has signaled he is unlikely to extend it.
U.S. winter wheat conditions continue to deteriorate, reflecting drought in key hard red winter wheat areas of the Plains, USDA on Monday. USDA rated 30% of the winter wheat crop good to excellent, down from 34% a week earlier and 45% at the same time a year ago. Analysts had expected the good to excellent ratings of to come in at 33%. Pro Farmer’s Crop Condition Index, which re-weights USDA’s initial ratings based on historical production for the last three years at the state level, also reflected the deteriorating situation. The CCI attempts to more accurately reflect the impact on total crop production than a straight weighting of the values. For the percentage of crops not included in state ratings, the model assumes similar conditions as in the major production states. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 10.8 points to 270.81, and is well below the condition ratings for this time last year. The SRW crop is faring better but still declined 5.44 points to 360.64. The more northern growing regions of Illinois and Ohio are in better shape compared to the drier states in the Southeast. The further deterioration in conditions in HRW areas comes before any potential damage from last weekend’s freeze over parts of the Plains becomes apparent.
CORN: July corn futures are trading near recent highs. Resistance comes in at $4.62 1/4 on continued strength. Support lies at $4.60 then $4.57 3/4 on a reversal.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans are near the upper end of the recent sideways range. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $11.91 1/4 on continued strength. Support stands at $11.82 1/4 then the 40-day moving average at $11.76 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw profit-taking overnight. Prices continue in a choppy uptrend on the daily bar chart. Support stands at the psychological $6.00 mark, which is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $5.96 1/2. Resistance stands at $6.10 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone. The cash market remains strong as cash cattle trade averaged $248.02 last week, down a modest 36 cents from the previous week. Futures are now trading below the cash market, largely due to the recent drop partially spurred by the recent probe into meat packers. Choice beef rose $2.50 to $383.56 Monday and is showing early signs of a bottom.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mixed tone. While prices rose on profit-taking Monday, the fundamental and technical outlook continue to point to lower futures prices. Until the CME lean hog index shows signs of a bottom, selling pressure is likely to continue. The index is down another 14 cents to $90.37 as of April 17. Pork cutout poked above the $100 level Monday, rising $1.00 to $100.20, led by strength in picnics.