GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat saw relative strength overnight while corn and soybeans gapped lower and faced followthrough selling. Selling was limited by technical support in both corn and beans. Outside markets are mixed this morning as the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower while front-month crude oil futures are trading just below unchanged.
World Weather Inc. Sunday evening reported rainfall in the coming week “will be frequent and abundant enough to bolster or maintain soil moisture across the northern Plains, northern and eastern Midwest and from portions of the Tennessee River Basin into the southeastern states.” Temperatures this week “will be very warm to hot from the central through the southern Plains,” said the forecaster. A high-pressure ridge is expected over the next couple of weeks in the central parts of the U.S., “although it will be of weak amplitude and probably will not have much negative impact on summer crops except in the central and southern Plains,” said World Weather.
The European Union is making plans for retaliation against the U.S. in a scenario where there is no trade agreement reached by the U.S.-imposed deadline of Aug. 1, Bloomberg reports. The U.S. is seeking a near-universal tariff on EU goods that is higher than 10%, with increasingly fewer exemptions. EU and U.S. negotiators are heading into more talks this week. The U.S. says a deal needs to be reached by Aug. 1, at which time President Trump has threatened to slap 30% tariffs on EU exports to the U.S. Reports say the two sides are so far at an impasse.
Reports say Bangladesh signed a trade deal Sunday to import 700,000 MT (25.720 million bushels) of U.S. wheat annually for five years. This is an effort to ease trade tensions with the U.S. and avoid new tariffs. The memorandum of understanding came ahead of a planned 35% tariff on Bangladesh’s exports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1. “This step reflects our willingness to build mutual trust and deepen economic cooperation,” said Bangladesh Food Minister Ali Imam Majumder. Bangladesh imports about 7 million MT of wheat annually, mostly from the Black Sea.
China continues to import a large amount of soybeans from all destinations amid the ongoing trade conflict. China imported 10.62 MMT if soybeans from Brazil in June, about 86.6% of total imports and up from 9.72 MMT a year ago. Meanwhile, China imported 1.58 MMT from the U.S., about 12.9% of total imports for June, up from 1.31 MMT a year ago. Imports through the first three quarters of the year are expected to be significantly elevated from year ago, while fourth quarter imports are highly contingent on trade talks with the U.S. China has yet to initiate purchases of U.S. soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year.
CORN: December corn futures saw profit-taking overnight. Losses were largely capped by 20-day moving average support at $4.25. Additional selling finds support at $4.22 3/4. Resistance stands at $4.30 3/4, the 40-day moving average, which capped gains on Friday.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures gapped lower overnight. Support comes in at $10.25 then $10.22 3/4 on persistent weakness. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $10.35 3/4 then the 200-day moving average at $10.42 3/4 on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw modest strength overnight. Bulls are looking to build on strength above the 20-day moving average at $5.68 1/2. Weakness below that mark finds support at $5.65. Resistance stands at $5.72 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then the psychological $5.75 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals remain strong, though technical resistance could limit losses after the open. October futures continue to trade near contract highs as thetechnical posture remains fully bullish. Steep discounts to the cash market, which is expected to boast a modest week-over-week decline once released later this morning, are likely to limit losses after the open. Wholesale beef finished Friday lower, as Choice cutout sunk $1.57 to $377.07 while Select dipped $1.91 to $364.58. Falling wholesale beef has weighed on cutting margins over the past couple of weeks.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid technical selling pressure. Gains last week in the August contract were capped by key resistance at the 10-day moving average at $106.60, a key level to start the week. The CME lean hog index is up 30 cents to $107.93 as of July 17, building on recent cash strength but is facing choppy action. Pork cutout rose $1.47 to $117.79 on Friday, led by strength across all cuts. Hams boasted the largest daily gain. While prices rose, movement was fairly light at 234.28 loads.