GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: 4 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat rose on corrective buying overnight while soybeans saw modest selling pressure. Wednesday’s reactionary low in corn and wheat is key, with corn bulls needing to hold prices above $5.00. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points higher.
Western Corn Belt producers will be glad to see a historically wet September in the rearview mirror. October appears likely to bring drying conditions that should provide a better harvest environment, said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in a Wednesday note. “Iowa has been at the center of concern more recently because of too much moisture. A few locations in the state reported some of the greatest rainfall on record for the month of September and no matter how you look at it, the region is too wet,” Lerner wrote. “October promises to squelch some of the rain that has fallen recently and the break from wet biased conditions should be timely across the Great Plains and western Midwest.” Lerner noted rainfall totals for September hit the 10-to-15 inch rain in south-central and east-central Iowa, with the area on track for another 1 to 3 inches and local totals of more than 4 inches through Thursday.
The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, Reuters reported, citing three people close to the discussions. The U.S. wants the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel, according to one source, the report said. The warning escalates pressure on Europe as President Donad Trump weighs a potential diesel export ban to bring down surging U.S. fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections. Reuters reported that the European Commission, France, Italy, Ireland and Britain plan to hold a call on the possible need to release diesel stocks.
The third quarter is in the books and global agriculture prices booked their biggest quarterly jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 as measured by the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index. The index which tracks 10 key crops from coffee to soybeans rose 13% in the quarter, the biggest rise since the quarter ending March 2022, Bloomberg reported. China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans provided support along with escalated fighting between Russia and Ukraine, which has choked off flows of grain from the Black Sea, leaving buyers to scramble for supplies elsewhere. A strengthening El Nino has further enhanced fund-buying interest in ag commodities. Bloomberg noted that Chicago corn and wheat futures both saw gains of 15% for the quarter, while soybeans were up 15%.
CORN: December corn are up on profit-taking. Bulls are looking to defend the psychological $5.00 mark today, which is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $4.95 3/4. Resistance stands at $5.14 3/4 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans are trading near recent lows. Support stands at the Sept. 28 low of $12.79 1/4 then $12.75 on persistent selling. Bulls are looking to break prices back above $13.00 on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat is up on corrective strength overnight. Bulls are looking to break prices back above resistance at $6.83 1/2 on continued strength. Support stands at $6.75 then $6.59 1/2 on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as prices are expected to continue to chop sideways. Prices have been chopping between 20-day moving average support at $220.2 and resistance at $222.75 over the past week and a half. Cash cattle trade has provided little catalyst so far this week. Choice beef rose 13 cents to $382.79 Friday. Slaughter continues near historic lows but estimated week to date totals are 2,000 above last week’s abysmal figure.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Bears held 10-day moving average support at $69.80 Wednesday, which stands as key resistance. The CME lean hog index is up a penny to $80.95 as of Sept. 29, pausing the seasonal slide, which could bring buyers back to hog futures. Meanwhile, pork cutout plunged $2.82 to $84.95 Wednesday, led by losses in bellies and ribs, though all cuts saw losses on the day.