GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn futures continue to push higher and are leading strength, while soybeans followed to the upside overnight. The ceasefire extension in the Middle East was the key news piece over the past day, but that did little to dissuade crude oil bulls as prices continue to rebound from last week’s drop. The U.S. dollar index is up around 10 points this morning.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--U.S.-Iran ceasefire indefinitely extended but peace talks on hold
--Ships come under Iran gunfire near Strait of Hormuz, U.K. navy says
--Iran oil tankers go dark to sneak past U.S. blockade
--Trump says U.S. caught Chinese ‘gift’ for Iran, testing red line
President Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran as peace talks remain on hold, walking back threats to resume fighting even as the Strait of Hormuz remains all but shut. Trump said Pakistan, the main mediator between the warring sides, asked the U.S. to hold off on fresh strikes, something Tehran denied was the case. Washington is extending the truce — which began just over two weeks ago — until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other,” Trump said on Truth Social late Tuesday. There’s still no sign the vital Strait of Hormuz will be reopened to oil, gas and fertilizer shipments soon. The U.S. and Iran seem closer to resolving longer-term issues such as the status of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas until December as a global deficit deepens due to the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the seaborne trade in nutrients, said a Bloomberg report. “Russian producers are allowed to export 20 million tons of fertilizers for the period from June 1 to Nov. 30, the government said in a statement Wednesday. The effective closure of the strait has cut off about a third of the seaborne fertilizer trade, fueling fears of a food crisis,” said the report. “Nations have raced to secure alternative supplies for farmers, but top producers including China and Russia have capped exports, forcing buyers to pay premiums for limited volumes.” Russia, the world’s second-largest fertilizer producer, accounts for about 20% of the global trade. It’s already been prioritizing domestic supply with the current export quota of 18.7 million tons running through the end of May. The new limits will cover 8.7 million tons for nitrogen fertilizers, more than 4.2 million tons for ammonium nitrate, and about 7 million tons for complex fertilizers, according to the government and as reported by Bloomberg.
CORN: July corn futures continue to trend higher. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.71 1/2 on continued strength, with little resistance lying on the way. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.60 3/4 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans are attempting to break higher out of the recent sideways range. Stiff resistance stands at the key psychological $12.00 mark. Support stands at $11.84 1/2 on a push lower.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to chop higher. Bulls are eyeing resistance at the overnight high of $6.20 1/2. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $6.05 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash trade initiated at $246.00 early this week, a modest drop from last week’s cash average of $248.02. Choice cutout climbed $2.62 to $386.12 Tuesday, extending the recent uptick.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls struggled to topple technical resistance at the 20-day moving average Tuesday, which could spur technical selling after the open. Traders are keeping a close eye on the cash market. The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $90.51 as of April 20. Pork cutout slid 86 cents to $99.34 Monday, led by losses in bellies.