GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans have negated their summer rallies and are beginning to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Wheat futures have led weakness despite a bullish fundamental outlook on the world market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading sharply lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points lower and back below the key $100-mark.
Chinese state traders are rumored to have purchased 14-16 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, according to a Reuters report. The purchase would mark the largest sale of U.S. beans to China so far this exporting season. Traders are rumored to be taking advantage of the recent downdraft seen in prices, booking supplies for the upcoming marketing year. These rumors were confirmed this morning as USDA reported daily export sales of 488,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and another 136,150 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, after President Trump called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic. Crude oil fell today, with Brent crude down about 4.5% to just over $83 a barrel and Nymex crude down about $4.00 and trading around $80, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said discussions between Tehran and Oman over management of the strait are in the final stages, according to Bloomberg. Trump said Sunday that a deal to open the waterway may be close and that new unspecified talks with Iran would begin on Monday. “Still, there’s little clarity on the Iran-Oman negotiations and no sign the Islamic Republic is willing to allow vessels free passage through the waterway, which Trump has demanded. Instead, Iran said it’s talking to Oman about a new route and not about whether the strait as a whole will be open or closed,” said the report. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Muscat and Tehran were discussing reopening the so-called middle passage through Hormuz. It has, however, been mined by Iran, according to people familiar with the matter, and could have to be cleared before vessels use it on a regular basis. Trump said he had canceled U.S. strikes after lobbying from Iran and Middle Eastern countries.
The U.S. and Japanese governments defended the yen in the first joint action to support the yen in 15 years, with warnings they won’t “hesitate” to move again, underscoring their unprecedented determination to defend the Asian currency. “It’s still unclear how much Washington spent to help lift the yen from its four-decade low. But the currency’s rebound points at interventions larger than in 1998 and 2011, when U.S. contributions didn’t surpass the $1 billion mark. Japan alone is estimated to have spent $53 billion on Thursday — a likely single-day record,” said a Bloomberg report. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly vowed on X that the US “will not hesitate” to wade back into the market, if needed. On Monday morning, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed their joint campaign — sending a clear signal Tokyo had a powerful partner in its bid to strengthen the currency.
CORN: December corn futures are trading at fresh lows. The summer rally has ended and bears are garnering an advantage on the daily bar chart. Support comes in at the psychological $4.50 mark on persistent selling. Resistance comes in at $4.65 1/2 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to slide. Support stands at the psychological $11.75 mark then the 100-day moving average at $11.67 on persistent selling. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $11.88 1/4 on a turn higher.
WHEAT: September SRW wheat futures saw some late session strength. Support comes in at the overnight low of $6.32, which is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $6.27 1/2. Resistance stands at $6.42 3/4 then $6.50 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Bulls are looking to overcome the 200-day moving average in October fats, which capped gains Friday at $227.50. Cash cattle trade bounced late in the week, though the extent of that strength is not yet known as USDA will release last week’s average later this morning. Choice beef rose 88 cents to $361.38 Friday as well.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Futures fell under heavy selling pressure mid-week following weakness in the cash market, but deferred futures remain at a steep discount to the cash market, which could limit extensive selling. The CME lean hog index is down another 21 cents to $98.23 as of July 20. Pork cutout slid $1.63 to $100.01 Friday, extending the recent slide.