GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 11 to 15 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to lead strength with corn and soybeans following to the upside. Grains saw an impressive lift going into the break this morning. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near steady this morning while the U.S. dollar index is down around 20 points.
The National Weather Service today said rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will continue from the central Plains eastward to the east-central U.S. Meantime, heat is forecast to intensify over the Northern Plains to start the weekend, while clouds and precipitation will keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread triple-digit high temperatures are expected by Saturday afternoon, possibly reaching the 110 degree mark locally by Sunday afternoon in parts of the Northern Plains. This will lead to numerous daily, monthly, and even all-time high-temperature records.
Today at 11 a.m. CDT comes the July USDA supply and demand (WASDE) report. USDA will use last week’s updated acreage figures in today’s estimates but is unlikely to make significant changes outside of that, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. U.S. corn stocks are seen falling modestly from June as record demand, evidenced by the June grain stocks report, continues to top even the most bullish expectations. U.S. soybean stocks are seen as coming in above June due to increased production due to higher acres. U.S. wheat stocks are seen down following the downward revision to acres seen in the June Acreage Report. If realized, it would push wheat stocks to historically tight levels. USDA typically does not adjust its yield estimates in the July WASDE, barring any severe weather issues during planting season. Respondents reflected that in the survey, with most opting for USDA’s trendline yields as their estimates. Eyes will also be focused on USDA’s export figure in wheat. What could ultimately provide a surprise in today’s WASDE data are world figures. Weather issues are the norm rather than the exception across the globe so far this growing season. For Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre’s complete breakdown ahead of today’s report, click here.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal are continuing, Bloomberg reported, citing a U.S. official, despite clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire. The U.S. is still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran, with ongoing discussions described as technical talks, aiming to agree a permanent peace by around mid-August, said the Bloomberg report. The U.S. and Iran are trying to resolve issues including Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. seeking a moratorium on Iran enriching uranium and the relinquishment of existing stocks of near-bomb-grade uranium. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen this week and crude oil prices have risen.
CORN: December corn futures found support at $4.49 3/4, the 10-day moving average, overnight. Bulls are looking to build off that level, with resistance at $4.56 3/4, the 40-day moving average, on a continued bounce.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures tagged 10-day moving average support overnight. That remains key support at $11.72. Resistance stands at $11.97 3/4 on a reversal higher.
WHEAT: September wheat futures are trading at fresh for-the-move highs. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $6.37 on persistent strength. Support comes in at $6.25 then $6.18 1/2 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeder futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Some profit-taking is possible given heavily oversold conditions on the daily bar chart, but cash fundamentals have turned weaker amid the drop in futures. Cash cattle trade initiated at $248.00 this week, sharply lower than a week ago. Choice beef slid another 39 cents to $380.81 Thursday, extending the recent slide.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of the recent uptrend. Futures continue to work higher in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The CME lean hog index is up another 37 cents to $92.35 as of July 8. The recent gains in the index have supported the futures rally. Pork cutout rose 65 cents to $98.81 Thursday, led by gain in bellies.