Ahead of the Open | August 28, 2023
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 13 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents lower; HRW 7 to 10 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans showed relative strength overnight and carried corn futures higher into the break. Wheat futures continue to fall under pressure. Front month crude oil futures remain steady around $80, and the U.S. dollar index is trading near unchanged.
Some parts of the Midwest received welcome rain during the weekend, but areas to the north were dry. Cooling occurred in both the Northern Plains and Midwest during the weekend. Midwest weather will trend warmer than usual again during the latter part of this week into next week, while conditions are expected to be drier than normal for the next 10 days to two weeks, according to World Weather Inc.
The passage of a second ship from Ukraine along a temporary Black Sea corridor has nothing to do with the prospects for a new grain deal involving Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. A vessel carrying steel products to Africa left Ukraine’s port of Odesa on Sunday through a temporary Black Sea corridor, the second ship to do so since Russia withdrew from the Black Sea export deal. Peskov reiterated the prospects of reviving the grain deal would depend on whether the West delivered on promises it gave Moscow regarding Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports.
China’s finance ministry is halving the stamp duty on stock trades to boost the slumping market starting today. The nation’s stock market has not been performing well and is attempting to “invigorate the capital market and boost investor confidence.”
China’s industrial profits dropped 6.7% in July compared to last year. This is a slight improvement from June, which saw a larger decrease of 8.3%. Looking at the cumulative figures for the first seven months of 2023, profits fell 15.5%. The decrease followed a 16.8 % slump in the prior period and a 4% fall in 2022.
Private exporters reported sales of 123,000 MT of corn to Mexico for the 2023-24 marketing year and sales of 296,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2023-24 marketing year.
CORN: December corn futures remain pinned between the tightening 10- and 20-day moving averages. A break above $4.95 or below $4.89 on a closing basis will likely determine the next move. Bulls are seeking the $5.00 level which will remain an important pivot.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to show relative strength, breaking above the prior double top in a bullish breakout on Friday. The $14.00 level will be key resistance, evidenced by price basing there during the overnight session. Bulls want to defend $13.80 support to negate a “failed breakout reversal.”
WHEAT: December SRW futures are testing August lows as bulls remain unable to overcome initial resistance, $6.12 marks first support, backed by $6.08 1/4. Bears retain momentum and a push towards $6.00 is likely sooner than later, despite continued tensions surrounding the Black Sea.
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s continued breakout. Wholesale prices continue to rally with Choice rising 27 cents and Select rising 76 cents on Friday. The recent surge in cutout has driven packer margins back into the black, encouraging them to pay up in the cash market for cattle.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower following Friday’s rejection off the prior high. Hog futures remain volatile with rallies being sold, the cash market continues to fall at a rapid pace, with the most recent $1.22 drop being the largest drop since the seasonal downturn at the beginning of August.
