Ahead of the Open | April 29, 2022
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents lower, HRW and spring wheat 9 to 14 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybean futures rose overnight. Wheat futures eased while corn was mixed. Nearby U.S. crude rose moderately to the highest levels in more than a week. U.S. stock index futures indicate a lower open, while the U.S. dollar index is down more than 400 points but still near five-year highs.
Delayed U.S. corn plantings are becoming concerning with limited progress likely in early May. The southwestern to eastern Corn Belt is expected to receive four rounds of rain through May 8, with most areas not likely to dry down enough to allow for fieldwork between rounds of rain, World Weather Inc. said today. “An important period of drier weather will occur May 9-13 with drier weather needed in the third week of the month to allow for planting to become aggressive,” the forecaster said.
Indonesia should be able to address its cooking oil shortage in the next few weeks and lift an export ban on palm oil and its refined products in May, industry officials said. Crude palm oil prices in Indonesia are likely to fall sharply as the domestic market will be unable to absorb the increased supply, straining the country's storage infrastructure while prices in other markets such as Malaysia rise, Reuters reported, citing Fitch. Malaysian palm oil futures still jumped nearly 3.0% to a record close today.
The European Commission lowered its forecast for the 2022-23 EU wheat crop by 1.2 MMT to 130.1 MMT. Despite the cut to production, the commission left its 2022-23 wheat export forecast at a record 40 MMT. The commission lowered its 2021-22 wheat export outlook by 1 MMT to 32 MMT.
China will auction another 500,000 MT of imported soybeans from state-owned reserves on May 6. Beijing has been selling state-owned soybean stocks to boost domestic prices and ease soymeal prices.
CORN: July corn futures traded both sides of unchanged overnight but are still on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly gain after ending last week at $7.89. In addition to slow U.S. planting, concerns are building over dryness hurting production prospects for Brazil’s safrina crop. Mato Grosso do Sul and neighboring areas continued to dry down during the past week due to a lack of rain and warm weather. Many areas already have a shortage of moisture and little rain is expected for at least another seven days, World Weather said.
SOYBEANS: July soybeans overnight rose as high as $17.03 1/2, the highest intraday price since $17.34 a week ago, and are poised to end up from last week’s close at $16.88.
WHEAT: July HRW wheat overnight fell as low as $11.23, the lowest intraday price since April 11, while July SRW also fell but is still up for the week. Sluggish exports and prospects for rain relief in the U.S. Plains are weighing on winter wheat prices.
CATTLE: Live cattle may find support from corrective buying ahead of the weekend. Choice boxed beef prices firmed 69 cents Thursday, ending a recent string of declines. Despite higher prices, packers moved 168 loads of beef, including 160 Choice boxes. The strong pickup in beef movement the past three days suggests retailers have started buying ahead of the upcoming grilling season and major “beef” holidays. Cash prices have firmed as the week progressed, with live steers averaging $143.12 through Thursday morning, up about 10 cents from last week’s average.
June live cattle fell $1.125 Thursday to $133.90, the contract’s lowest settlement since April 8, while August feeder cattle gained $1.45 to $170.40.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may extend this week’s steep declines and limit any corrective followthrough gains as technicals and cash fundamentals continue to slip. The CME lean hog index is down 53 cents today (as of April 27) following a 55-cent decline Thursday. Pork cutout values fell $1.02 Thursday amid sharp declines in bellies, butts and ribs. June lean hog futures gained 62.5 cents yesterday to $110.975, after dropping near a three-month low earlier in the session.
China’s sow herd declined 3.3% in March to 41.9 million head, down 3.1% from last year. China had 422.5 million head of hogs at the end of March, down 5.9% from the previous month but up 1.6% from last year, according to the country’s ag ministry.