GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Positioning drove trade overnight ahead of USDA’s reports later this morning. Pre-report expectations can be found here. Corn has been toggling around $5.00 and soybeans have been pinned near $13.00, today’s reports are likely to help determine near-term direction. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged this morning while the U.S. dollar index is up around 180 points.
Oil futures were modestly lower early Friday after President Donald Trump said the previous day that the U.S. wouldn’t attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Nymex WTI crude was down 0.9% after it and Brent crude soared more than 4% on Thursday. Renewed attacks on tankers in the Gulf and elsewhere also helped lift oil futures Thursday. The threat to U.S. Gulf Coast refinery capacity from Hurricane Isaias (see item below) has fallen to fewer than 500,000 barrels a day in Alabama and Mississippi, down from the 2.5 million barrels a day feared earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing S&P Global Energy.
Attacks on shipping in the Middle East escalated sharply the past week, but the Black Sea presents an even greater threat, said Christopher Louney, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in a Thursday note. Attacks on ships in the region as Russia and Ukraine trade attacks have risen, with vessels, including some carrying grain, hit near Romania and Bulgaria. Energy vessels have also been targeted. “Attacks are rising dramatically, with shipping experts deeming it the most dangerous arena despite receiving less attention,” the analyst wrote. “Black Sea port calls have plummeted, forcing operators toward Danube alternatives that offer substantially lower capacity and face their own attacks.”
Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a Category 2 storm and is expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. The National Hurricane Center said a storm surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Swanee River, with a life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coast with damaging wind gusts extending well inland. Areas of heavy rainfall are forecast throughout much of the Southeast U.S. World Weather has warned that open-boll cotton in affected areas could be vulnerable to a further quality hit and stringing as recent rains have already damaged the crop in the Florida panhandle.
CORN: December corn is pivoting around $5.00. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.06 3/4 on continued strength while support lies at $4.96 1/4 on a push lower. A close outside of those levels likely determines near term direction.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans are trading near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Support comes in at $12.80 1/2 on a push lower, while bulls are eyeing the $13.00 mark and resistance at $13.09 on report driven strength.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat are trading near moving average support. Bulls are looking to hold support at $6.83 today while selling below that mark eyes support at $6.75 3/4. Resistance stands at $6.91 1/4 then $7.00 on a push higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live and feeder cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone. Bulls have managed to hold futures just below key resistance at $224.20, the 100-day moving average, the past few sessions. Without higher cash cattle trade, a push above that mark seems unlikely. Cash trade has been slow to develop this week. Choice beef slid 77 cents to $374.85 Thursday, extending the recent slide.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Support comes in at the contract low, which capped losses yesterday. Futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart. The CME lean hog index is down another 50 cents to $78.41 as if Oct. 7, extending the seasonal slide. Pork cutout slid another $2.07 to $79.64 amid losses in all cuts but picnics.