USDA released its final production estimates for the 2024-2025 wheat crop in their Annual Small Grain Summary today. The report was bearish for the wheat market- a Reuters poll of analysts showed the average expected production was 1.921 billion bushels. USDA’s number came in higher at 1.98 billion bushels, up from their August forecast of 1.927 billion bushels. After the report, nearby wheat contracts saw selling pressure continue. Chicago wheat ended down 11 1/2 cents, and Kansas City wheat followed closely behind, down 10 1/2 cents on the day. Minneapolis spring wheat also fell 6 1/2 cents at close.
Approximately 62% of the increase can be attributed to an uptick in the harvested acreage, which was up 677,000 acres from the August forecast. Texas saw the largest increase, and was up 450,000 from the previous forecast. Wheat is normally more susceptible to shifts in the harvested estimate than other crops, like soybeans and cotton, due to the multiple possible uses for the crop besides harvesting for grain. Although the shift may seem large, it is not unusual by historical standards. This is the smallest change in the final wheat harvested acres from August since 2020, and nowhere near the 2 million acre change that occurred for the 2022 crop year. Meanwhile, the national yield for all wheat was only increased six-tenths of a bushel.
USDA All Wheat Estimates | |||
| Report | 2024 Final | 2025 Aug | 2025 Final |
| Planted (1,000 acres) | 46,274 | 45,391 | 45,238 |
| Harvested (1,000 acres) | 38,633 | 36,564 | 37,241 |
| Yield (bu/ac) | 51.2 | 52.7 | 53.3 |
| Production (1,000 bu.) | 1,978,697 | 1,927,026 | 1,984,537 |
The maps below show a more detailed picture of how wheat production shifted at the state level, broken down by class.
