USDA rated the crop 73% “good” to “excellent” as of July 27. While this was down one percentage point from last week, it remains one of the strongest ratings in recent history. By comparison, the end of July corn rating is the strongest since 2016—a year in which the national corn average was 174.6 bu. per acre, roughly 4% above the trendline yield.
When comparing the two years, crop ratings aren’t the only similarities. The summer of 2016 was one of the hottest on record, and included some of the warmest nights ever, at the time marking the hottest nighttime low (60.8°F) than any summer since records began in 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meanwhile, the average July temp of 75.2°F was the 14th warmest July on record up until that point.
While it’s not quite over, this summer is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record as well, with key production areas facing oppressive daytime temps and elevated nighttime lows, which are averaging about 4 degrees higher than normal. However, rains across the Corn Belt have eased some concerns around the yield impact of hot temps, though the combination creates an optimal environment for disease—such as Southern Rust, which was also prevalent in 2016.
We’ve held discussions with agronomists in recent weeks, discussing impacts of the adversity the crop has faced thus far. ‘Overly tight tassel wrap’ has certainly been a buzz phrase of late, with many producers facing pollination problems, believed to stem from snug tassels that are less willing to release pollen. However, Bayer agronomist, Matt Parmer, indicates while the issue may be spread across the country, there is likely a small percentage of the U.S. crop that will truly be affected by the phenomenon. “Stress on top of stress can lead to kernel abortion and pollination failures and fortunately we have not seen widespread issues across the area.”
When asked about other problems Parmer has seen this summer, he indicated that aphids are a major issue in some fields, making it crucial for producers to scout and apply a timely insecticide to combat the critters. “The adults give birth to pregnant nymphs, which causes the population to colonize quickly as they feed on the plant sugars.” These pests can be detrimental to the pollination process as they coat the silks with their “honeydew” and interfere with silk receptivity from pollen, according to Parmer. He also mentioned shallow root structures and variability among plants within the field, due to saturated soils, are also a bit concerning.
When asked about the biggest yield robber thus far, Chris Perkins, owner of Banded Ag LLC, indicated the high overnight temperatures are without question the biggest concern. But Perkins also indicated that aphids are certainly an issue.
Parmer and Perkins both commented that the crop is green and appears healthy from the road, but each noted that isn’t a sure sign of a good crop, and stressed the importance of walking fields. Some issues can be fixed with insecticide, while others may require cooler temps during grain fill to offset early-season stresses. “This crop has had to spend a lot of energy just to stay cool at night, when it should be resting and recharging. Naturally the plant must rob energy from somewhere, which typically results in a pullback in both number of kernels and depth.” Parmer adds, “How the crop advances through the R2-R3 stages will be critical.”
Traders are currently trading a yield of around 187-188 bu. per acre, well above USDA’s current 181 bu. per acre estimate. While the crop may be a good one overall, the calendar still says Mother Nature is in control.
Be sure to tune into the Pro Farmer Crop Tour , set for August 18-21, which will lend insight on how the crop is progressing through the last stages of the growing season.