It may be cold comfort for soybean growers to hear at the end of a tough year, but 2025 could have been worse.
That’s the conclusion of a paper by agricultural economists Lourival Monaco, Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier of Purdue, who note that China’s recently ended boycott of U.S. soybean purchases due to a renewed trade war was partly offset by increased purchases by other buyers as well as the emergence of new markets.
“If China reduced its purchases to the same absolute level observed in 2025, but the U.S. market structure remained as concentrated as in 2024, the overall decline would have been catastrophic,” the economists wrote in a paper titled, “U.S. Corn and Soybean Exports: Diversification Drives Growth in Corn and Cushions Decline in Soybeans,” published by farmdoc daily. “Instead, the expansion into Southeast Asia, North Africa, Europe, and Latin America absorbed a substantial portion of the displacement, transforming what could have been a market crisis into a manageable contraction.”
There’s also an important lesson to be learned from the corn market, where more diversified export demand has served as an “engine of growth,” the economists said.
Reliance on China ‘created vulnerability’
To be sure, 2025 U.S. soybean export totals are tracking below 2024 and given historical patterns are unlikely to catch up to last year’s volumes even as November and December data roll in.
The data underlines how dependent the U.S. had become on China as an export market. In 2024, China accounted for 46.7% of U.S. soybean exports, with the European Union second at 9.9%, followed by Mexico at 8.6% (see chart below).
Here’s how 2025 is stacking up: China’s share has declined dramatically to 18.7%, a reduction of 28 percentage points, while the “rest of the world” category surged to 21.6%, becoming the largest category, the economists noted. The European Union increased its share to 12.9%, and Mexico expanded to 12.6%. Additional gains were seen elsewhere, including Egypt (10.2%), Japan (5.4%), and Indonesia (5.0%) (see chart below).
The trade war laid bare how a heavy reliance on China “created vulnerability to market disruptions and policy changes in that single destination,” the economists said.
Total U.S. soybean exports are projected to total 44.50 million metric tons in the 2025-26 marketing year, representing 38% of total soybean production and a decrease of 13% compared to 2024-25, according to the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA.
The economists noted that while some months in 2025 showed lower volumes when compared to 2024, the magnitude of decline has been moderated by gains in alternative markets. October 2025 stands out as the month with the largest year-over-year difference, coinciding with the peak of the soybean harvest and zero purchases by Chinese buyers until then.
A different story for corn
The corn export market, meanwhile, offers a contrasting story, the economists said. Despite reductions in purchases by top traditional markets such as Mexico, Japan and Colombia, overall export volumes this year have already exceeded 2024 levels even with data only through early November.
Mexico accounted for a dominant 38% share of U.S. corn exports in 2024, followed by Japan at 20%, Colombia and the European Union each at 12% and South Korea at 5% – reflecting “relatively stable, longstanding trade relationships,” the economists said, particularly with Mexico under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.
In 2025, Mexico’s share of exports fell to 29%, Japan’s to 18% and Colombia’s to 9%, but the reductions in market share – and in some cases absolute volumes – were more than offset by gains in other markets. The “rest of the world” category increased from 12% to 15%, while the European Union expanded to 6%.
Meanwhile, total U.S. corn exports are projected to hit 78 million metric tons in 2025, representing 18% of total corn production and an increase of 8% compared to 2024, according to the December WASDE report. The economists noted that, without complete data for November and December 2025, corn exports have already surpassed 2024 levels in most months.
‘Engine of growth’
The economists said the export trajectories reflect the contrast between a “defensive” strategy for soybeans and an “offensive” strategy for corn. For soybeans, diversification has acted largely as a buffer, preventing a potential market collapse.
“For corn, diversification has served as an engine of growth,” they wrote, “enabling total volumes to expand despite weakness in traditional markets. The expansion across different markets suggests that U.S. corn has captured market share through competitive pricing and reliable supply. “By establishing stronger commercial relationships with diverse markets, U.S. exporters have laid the groundwork for future growth that is less dependent on any single buyer.”