USDA’s initial spring wheat crop estimate much smaller than expected
This resulted in a much lower carryover projection for 2021-22 than the market anticipated, despite a bigger than expected winter wheat crop forecast.
USDA maintained its weather-adjusted trendline yield estimates for both corn and soybeans and incorporated its June 30 harvested acreage estimates, resulting in a bigger crop projection for corn and a steady projection for soybeans. On cotton, it trimmed yields but raised its harvested acreage forecast, boosting its production estimate.
The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
|
U.S. Wheat Production |
|
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
USDA |
1.746 |
|
Average est. |
1.847 |
|
USDA June |
1.898 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
USDA |
1.364 |
|
Average est. |
1.331 |
|
USDA June |
1.309 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
805 |
|
Average est. |
786 |
|
USDA June |
771 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
362 |
|
Average est. |
340 |
|
USDA June |
335 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
198 |
|
Average est. |
205 |
|
USDA June |
202 |
|
|
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
345 |
|
Average est. |
459 |
|
USDA June |
NA |
|
|
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
37 |
|
Average est. |
56 |
|
USDA June |
NA |
|
|
|
|
2021 U.S. Production |
||
|
Corn |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
|
15.165 |
179.5 |
|
Average est. |
15.115 |
178.82 |
|
USDA June |
14.990 |
179.50 |
|
Soybeans |
||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
4.405 |
50.8 |
|
Average est. |
4.394 |
50.67 |
|
USDA June |
4.405 |
50.80 |
|
Cotton |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
|
17.80 |
814 |
|
Average est. |
17.29 |
NA |
|
USDA June |
17.00 |
847 |
|
U.S. Carryover |
||
|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
1.082 |
1.432 |
|
Average est. |
1.088 |
1.402 |
|
USDA June |
1.107 |
1.357 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
135 |
155 |
|
Average est. |
134 |
148 |
|
USDA June |
135 |
155 |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
844* |
665 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
729 |
|
USDA June |
852* |
770 |
|
*Set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu. |
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
3.15 |
3.30 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.04 |
|
USDA June |
3.15 |
2.90 |
|
Global Carryover |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
279.86 |
291.18 |
|
World less China |
81.68 |
93.03 |
|
Average est. |
279.76 |
288.97 |
|
USDA June |
280.60 |
289.41 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
91.49 |
94.49 |
|
World less China |
61.70 |
63.49 |
|
Average est. |
87.62 |
92.57 |
|
USDA June |
88.00 |
92.55 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
290.18 |
291.68 |
|
World less China |
144.55 |
149.05 |
|
Average est. |
293.48 |
295.41 |
|
USDA June |
293.48 |
296.80 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
91.57 |
87.74 |
|
World less China |
52.69 |
53.16 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
89.86 |
|
USDA June |
93.05 |
89.30 |
|
Global Production Highlights |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
360.25 (360.25) |
385.21 (380.76) |
|
Argentina |
48.50 (47.00) |
51.00 (51.00) |
|
Brazil |
93.00 (98.50) |
118.00 (118.00) |
|
South Africa |
17.00 (17.00) |
17.00 (17.00) |
|
Russia |
13.87 (13.87) |
15.40 (14.90) |
|
Ukraine |
30.30 (30.30) |
37.50 (37.50) |
|
China |
260.67 (260.67) |
268.00 (268.00) |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
112.55 (112.55) |
119.88 (119.88) |
|
Argentina |
46.50 (47.00) |
52.00 (52.00) |
|
Brazil |
137.00 (137.00) |
144.00 (144.00) |
|
Paraguay |
9.90 (9.90) |
10.50 (10.50) |
|
China |
19.60 (19.60) |
19.00 (19.00) |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
49.69 (49.69) |
47.52 (51.66) |
|
Argentina |
17.63 (17.63) |
20.50 (20.50) |
|
Australia |
33.00 (33.00) |
28.50 (27.00) |
|
Canada |
35.18 (35.18) |
31.50 (32.00) |
|
EU |
125.94 (125.94) |
138.20 (137.50) |
|
Russia |
85.35 (85.35) |
85.00 (86.00) |
|
Ukraine |
25.42 (25.42) |
30.00 (29.50) |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
14.61 (14.61) |
17.80 (17.00) |
|
Australia |
2.80 (2.80) |
3.90 (3.90) |
|
Brazil |
10.75 (11.25) |
13.25 (13.25) |
|
India |
28.30 (28.50) |
29.00 (29.00) |
|
China |
29.50 (29.50) |
26.75 (26.75) |
|
Pakistan |
4.50 (4.50) |
5.00 (5.30) |
