USDA’s initial spring wheat crop estimate much smaller than expected

( )

This resulted in a much lower carryover projection for 2021-22 than the market anticipated, despite a bigger than expected winter wheat crop forecast.

USDA maintained its weather-adjusted trendline yield estimates for both corn and soybeans and incorporated its June 30 harvested acreage estimates, resulting in a bigger crop projection for corn and a steady projection for soybeans. On cotton, it trimmed yields but raised its harvested acreage forecast, boosting its production estimate.

The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.746

Average est.

1.847

USDA June

1.898

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.364

Average est.

1.331

USDA June

1.309

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

805

Average est.

786

USDA June

771

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

362

Average est.

340

USDA June

335

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

198

Average est.

205

USDA June

202

 

Other spring wheat – million bu.

USDA

345

Average est.

459

USDA June

NA

 

Durum wheat – million bu.

USDA

37

Average est.

56

USDA June

NA

 

 

 

2021 U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

 

15.165

179.5

Average est.

15.115

178.82

USDA June

14.990

179.50

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

 

4.405

50.8

Average est.

4.394

50.67

USDA June

4.405

50.80

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

 

17.80

814

Average est.

17.29

NA

USDA June

17.00

847

 

 

 

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

1.082

1.432

Average est.

1.088

1.402

USDA June

1.107

1.357

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

135

155

Average est.

134

148

USDA June

135

155

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

844*

665

Average est.

NA

729

USDA June

852*

770

*Set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu.

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

3.15

3.30

Average est.

NA

3.04

USDA June

3.15

2.90

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

279.86

291.18

World less China

81.68

93.03

Average est.

279.76

288.97

USDA June

280.60

289.41

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

91.49

94.49

World less China

61.70

63.49

Average est.

87.62

92.57

USDA June

88.00

92.55

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

290.18

291.68

World less China

144.55

149.05

Average est.

293.48

295.41

USDA June

293.48

296.80

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

91.57

87.74

World less China

52.69

53.16

Average est.

NA

89.86

USDA June

93.05

89.30

 

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21
July (June)

2021-22
July (June)

U.S.

360.25 (360.25)

385.21 (380.76)

Argentina

48.50 (47.00)

51.00 (51.00)

Brazil

93.00 (98.50)

118.00 (118.00)

South Africa

17.00 (17.00)

17.00 (17.00)

Russia

13.87 (13.87)

15.40 (14.90)

Ukraine

30.30 (30.30)

37.50 (37.50)

China

260.67 (260.67)

268.00 (268.00)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21
July (June)

2021-22
July (June)

U.S.

112.55 (112.55)

119.88 (119.88)

Argentina

46.50 (47.00)

52.00 (52.00)

Brazil

137.00 (137.00)

144.00 (144.00)

Paraguay

9.90 (9.90)

10.50 (10.50)

China

19.60 (19.60)

19.00 (19.00)

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21
July (June)

2021-22
July (June)

U.S.

49.69 (49.69)

47.52 (51.66)

Argentina

17.63 (17.63)

20.50 (20.50)

Australia

33.00 (33.00)

28.50 (27.00)

Canada

35.18 (35.18)

31.50 (32.00)

EU

125.94 (125.94)

138.20 (137.50)

Russia

85.35 (85.35)

85.00 (86.00)

Ukraine

25.42 (25.42)

30.00 (29.50)

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21
July (June)

2021-22
July (June)

U.S.

14.61 (14.61)

17.80 (17.00)

Australia

2.80 (2.80)

3.90 (3.90)

Brazil

10.75 (11.25)

13.25 (13.25)

India

28.30 (28.50)

29.00 (29.00)

China

29.50 (29.50)

26.75 (26.75)

Pakistan

4.50 (4.50)

5.00 (5.30)

 

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