USDA’s initial corn crop estimate well shy of expectations
Its initial soybean crop estimate was also a bit smaller than expected, and it sliced its all wheat crop quite a bit more than the market anticipated. The corn and soybean data is based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Field samples from USDA won’t come into play until September.
USDA also surprised the market by cutting its U.S. cotton crop estimate by more than 500,000 bales from July; analysts had expected a higher production forecast.
Also of note, USDA slashed its 2021-22 global wheat carryover forecast by 12.6 MMT from July to 279.06 MMT, which was 9.1 MMT lighter than expected and a bullish development for both corn and soybeans. USDA made some aggressive (and needed) cuts to its forecasts for both Canada and Russia.
The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
|
2021 U.S. Production |
||
|
Corn |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
USDA |
14.750 |
174.6 |
|
Average est. |
15.004 |
177.6 |
|
USDA July proj. |
15.165 |
179.5 |
|
Soybeans |
||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
|
USDA |
4.339 |
50.0 |
|
Average est. |
4.375 |
50.4 |
|
USDA July proj. |
4.405 |
50.8 |
|
Cotton |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
USDA |
17.264 |
800 |
|
Average est. |
18.150 |
NA |
|
USDA July proj. |
17.80 |
814 |
|
U.S. Wheat Production |
|
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
USDA |
1.697 |
|
Average est. |
1.723 |
|
USDA July |
1.746 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
USDA |
1.319 |
|
Average est. |
1.363 |
|
USDA July |
1.364 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
777 |
|
Average est. |
806 |
|
USDA July |
805 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
366 |
|
Average est. |
363 |
|
USDA July |
362 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
176 |
|
Average est. |
194 |
|
USDA July |
198 |
|
|
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
343 |
|
Average est. |
325 |
|
USDA July |
345 |
|
|
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu. |
|
|
USDA |
34.7 |
|
Average est. |
35.0 |
|
USDA July |
37.2 |
|
|
|
|
U.S. Carryover |
||
|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
1.117 |
1.242 |
|
Average est. |
1.096 |
1.297 |
|
USDA July |
1.082 |
1.432 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
160 |
155 |
|
Average est. |
148 |
159 |
|
USDA July |
135 |
155 |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
844 |
627 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
644 |
|
USDA July |
844* |
665 |
|
*Set by June 1 stocks. |
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
3.20 |
3.00 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.50 |
|
USDA July |
3.15 |
3.30 |
|
Global Carryover |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
280.75 |
284.63 |
|
World less China |
82.58 |
86.48 |
|
Average est. |
278.74 |
288.23 |
|
USDA July |
279.86 |
291.18 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
92.82 |
96.15 |
|
World less China |
62.02 |
63.15 |
|
Average est. |
91.37 |
94.65 |
|
USDA July |
91.49 |
94.49 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
288.83 |
279.06 |
|
World less China |
144.21 |
137.44 |
|
Average est. |
290.54 |
288.15 |
|
USDA July |
290.18 |
291.68 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
USDA |
91.78 |
87.23 |
|
World less China |
52.64 |
52.39 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
88.14 |
|
USDA July |
91.57 |
87.74 |
|
Global Production Highlights |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
360.25 (360.25) |
374.68 (385.21) |
|
Argentina |
48.50 (48.50) |
51.00 (51.00) |
|
Brazil |
87.00 (93.00) |
118.00 (118.00) |
|
South Africa |
17.20 (17.00) |
17.00 (17.00) |
|
Russia |
13.87 (13.87) |
16.50 (15.40) |
|
Ukraine |
30.30 (30.30) |
39.00 (37.50) |
|
China |
260.67 (260.67) |
268.00 (268.00) |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
112.55 (112.55) |
118.08 (119.88) |
|
Argentina |
46.00 (46.50) |
52.00 (52.00) |
|
Brazil |
137.00 (137.00) |
144.00 (144.00) |
|
Paraguay |
9.90 (9.90) |
10.50 (10.50) |
|
China |
19.60 (19.60) |
19.00 (19.00) |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
49.69 (49.69) |
46.18 (47.52) |
|
Argentina |
17.65 (17.63) |
20.50 (20.50) |
|
Australia |
33.00 (33.00) |
30.00 (28.50) |
|
Canada |
35.18 (35.18) |
24.00 (31.50) |
|
EU |
125.94 (125.94) |
138.60 (138.20) |
|
Russia |
85.35 (85.35) |
72.50 (85.00) |
|
Ukraine |
25.42 (25.42) |
33.00 (30.00) |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
U.S. |
14.61 (14.61) |
17.26 (17.80) |
|
Australia |
2.80 (2.80) |
4.40 (3.90) |
|
Brazil |
10.75 (10.75) |
12.50 (13.25) |
|
India |
28.30 (28.30) |
29.00 (29.00) |
|
China |
29.50 (29.50) |
26.75 (26.75) |
|
Pakistan |
4.50 (4.50) |
5.00 (5.00) |
