USDA slashes already tight U.S. corn ending stocks for both marketing years

USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports
USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports
(USDA)

Cotton and wheat carryover also came in lighter than expected. On the other hand, soybean carryover climbed a bit more than expected for both 2020-21 and 2021-22.

USDA's updated winter wheat production estimate came in just shy of expectations and up nearly 12% from last year’s crop.

The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters, with the exception of cotton, which is based on polling by Bloomberg.

 

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

1.107

1.357

Average est.

1.207

1.423

USDA May

1.257

1.507

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

135

155

Average est.

122

146

USDA May

120

140

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

852

770

Average est.

869

783

USDA May

872

774

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

3.15

2.90

Average est.

NA

2.99

USDA May

3.30

3.10

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

280.60

289.41

World less China

82.42

91.26

Average est.

280.82

289.20

USDA May

283.53

292.30

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

88.00

92.55

World less China

56.20

58.56

Average est.

87.14

91.22

USDA May

86.55

91.10

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

293.48

296.80

World less China

147.85

154.17

Average est.

294.41

294.49

USDA May

294.67

294.96

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

2021-22

USDA

93.05

89.30

World less China

54.18

53.73

Average est.

NA

90.14

USDA May

93.16

90.99

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21
June (May)

2021-22
June (May)

U.S.

360.25 (360.25)

380.76 (380.76)

Argentina

47.00 (47.00)

51.00 (51.00)

Brazil

98.50 (102.00)

118.00 (118.00)

South Africa

17.00 (17.00)

17.00 (17.00)

Russia

13.87 (13.87)

14.90 (14.90)

Ukraine

30.30 (30.30)

37.50 (37.50)

China

260.67 (260.67)

268.00 (268.00)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21
June (May)

2021-22
June (May)

U.S.

112.55 (112.55)

119.88 (119.88)

Argentina

47.00 (47.00)

52.00 (52.00)

Brazil

137.00 (136.00)

144.00 (144.00)

Paraguay

9.90 (9.90)

10.50 (10.50)

China

19.60 (19.60)

19.00 (19.00)

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21
June (May)

2021-22
June (May)

U.S.

49.69 (49.69)

51.66 (50.95)

Argentina

17.63 (17.63)

20.50 (20.50)

Australia

33.00 (33.00)

27.00 (27.00)

Canada

35.18 (35.18)

32.00 (32.00)

EU

125.94 (125.94)

137.50 (134.00)

Russia

85.35 (85.35)

86.00 (85.00)

Ukraine

25.42 (25.42)

29.50 (29.00)

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21
June (May)

2021-22
June (May)

U.S.

14.61 (14.61)

17.00 (17.00)

Australia

2.80 (2.50)

3.90 (3.90)

Brazil

11.25 (11.50)

13.25 (13.25)

India

28.50 (28.50)

29.00 (29.00)

China

29.50 (29.50)

26.75 (27.50)

Pakistan

4.50 (4.50)

5.30 (5.30)

 

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.898

Average est.

1.892

USDA May

1.872

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.309

Average est.

1.312

USDA May

1.283

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

771

Average est.

760

USDA May

731

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

335

Average est.

333

USDA May

332

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

202

Average est.

216

USDA May

211

 

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