U.S. cattle herd shrunk more than expected
USDA estimates there were 91.9 million head of cattle in the U.S. as of Jan. 1, down 1.9 million head (2.0%) from year-ago and 762,000 head less than the average pre-report estimate implied. The beef cow herd at 30.1 million head dropped 719,000 head (2.3%) from year-ago and will continue to decline amid ongoing contraction. The number of beef heifers expected to calve dropped 98,000 head (2.8%) and beef replacement heifers fell 192,000 head (3.3%). That was the fewest number of beef heifers held back for breeding since 2012, likely reflective of the sparse pasture conditions across the Plains due to drought. More heifers are moving into feedlots, which USDA’s Cattle on Feed data has signaled.
|
Cattle Inventory Report |
USDA |
Average estimate (Percent of year-ago) |
|
All cattle/calves |
98.0 |
98.8 |
|
Cow/heifers that have calved |
98.0 |
98.6 |
|
Beef cows |
97.7 |
98.2 |
|
Dairy cows |
99.3 |
99.6 |
|
Heifers 500 lbs.+ |
97.9 |
99.2 |
|
Beef heifer replacements |
96.7 |
98.2 |
|
Dairy heifer replacements |
96.6 |
100.2 |
|
Other heifers |
99.2 |
99.3 |
|
Steers 500 lbs.+ |
98.8 |
98.7 |
|
Bulls 500 lbs.+ |
95.4 |
98.9 |
|
All calves 500 lbs. and under |
97.4 |
98.9 |
|
2021 calf crop |
98.8 |
99.1 |
USDA estimated the 2021 calf crop at 35.1 million head, down 410,000 head (1.2%) from last year and the smallest figure since 2016.
The dairy cow herd at 9.4 million head declined 67,000 head (0.7%) from last year. Milk replacement heifers dropped 158,000 head (3.4%), signaling the U.S. dairy herd will also continue to shrink.
With every category coming in below the average pre-report estimates, the report data is fully bullish and should support continued strength in cattle futures.
