USDA-NASS on Monday released their first monthly slaughter report since the government’s re-opening, covering data through the end of October. The report showed that trends of higher slaughter weights for livestock, but still lower overall red meat production when compared to previous years are persisting in to the fall.
Slaughter weights on cattle continue to push higher. The average live weight for cattle slaughtered in October was 1,451 pounds, up 29 pounds from a year ago. Relatively cheap feed grains has driven some of that increase. The need to meet beef demand led to cash discounts on heavier, fleshy cattle not being as steep as normal earlier this year, but that may change with strength in the cash markets eroding over the last two months.
Beef production so far in 2025 is down 4% compared to the same period in 2024, and currently stands at 21,681 million pounds on the year. Despite the heavier weights, a smaller U.S. herd and the closed Mexican border continues to limit supplies. Roughly 1.78 million fewer head of cattle have been slaughtered in 2025 compared to the previous year.
October is historically one of the months with higher beef production, serving as the peak month twice in the last five years. Not being able to match last year’s production in this month of typically higher output suggests that beef supplies will remain tight to close 2025, and possibly well in to 2026 as slaughter looks to slow based on seasonal patterns.
Pork production was up less than 1% from last October, and is up roughly 9% from September at 2,522.3 million pounds. Average carcass weights were up 3 pounds from last year at 290 pounds. Pork continues to see solid demand at the meat counter, but a lack of support from the cattle markets and no fresh bullish fundamental news is limiting upward price action in hog contracts.
