According to the September survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the fourth time in the past six months.
Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for September fell to 44.7 from 50.3 in August.
“Pessimism from higher fuel and fertilizer costs exceeded the optimism stemming from higher grain prices, according to bankers across the 10-state region,” says Creighton University’s Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey..
Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President at Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., reports, “Corn harvest has begun in our area. Early reports are that corn yields are down at least 10% from 2025. Current fuel prices and fertilizer prices for 2027 are major concerns.”
Farming and ranchland prices: For the fourth time in the past five months, the farm and ranchland price index climbed above growth neutral, increasing to 50.1 from 47.2 in August. “Farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranching income,” notes Goss.
Bankers were asked to name the top buyer of farm and ranchland in their area. Overwhelmingly, 89.5% report existing farmers as the number one customer in the sale of farm and ranchland, while the remaining 10.5% identified investors as the second-ranking purchaser of ag land. Other buyers, such as international customers, institutional purchasers and beginning farmers, were not named by bankers.
Farm equipment sales: The September farm equipment sales index increased to a very weak 25.0 from August’s 22.2.
“This is the 37th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral. The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum have created even more volatility and reluctance among farmers and ranchers to purchase new farm equipment,” states Goss.
Bankers were asked to identify input factors causing the greatest financial pressures among agricultural customers. Approximately, 52.6% of bankers named higher fertilizer costs, while the remaining 47.4% identified soaring fuel costs as the top factor producing financial pressure among agricultural producers.
Bank CEOs were asked to assess the impact of tariffs on agriculture producers in their area. Approximately, 79.0% report tariffs were having a negative impact on the agriculture and livestock economy. The remaining 21.0% state tariffs have had little or no impact on farmer and rancher economic conditions.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The September economic confidence index tumbled to a weak 26.3 from 31.6 in August.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.