An indicator of economic health in 10 Midwestern states turned negative in July, According to the July survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the fifth time in the past six months. Readings range between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for July plummeted to 42.1 from June’s 52.6. “More than half, or 52.0%, of bank CEOs report very weak commodity prices will be the greatest challenge to the agriculture economy moving forward,” says Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University, who conducts the survey.
Farming and ranchland prices: For a third straight month, the farm and ranchland index climbed above growth neutral but dipped to 52.8 from 55.3 in June. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranch incomes, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and somewhat tougher credit standards have restrained growth in farmland values,” states Goss.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., reports “Grain prices and cost of inputs are a major concern.”
Farm equipment sales: The July farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 27.8 from June’s 28.9. This marks the 35th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral.
“The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum continue to create more volatility in the agricultural sector. This volatility, along with low and negative cash flows, have reduced producers’ willingness to purchase new farm equipment,” notes Goss.
Despite weak farm and ranch net cash flows, 53.7% of bankers indicate their banks had not tightened credit standards. The remaining 46.3% report tightening standards “somewhat.”
Hiring: The new hiring index for July increased to 50.1 from 47.4 in June. The rural job market for farms, ranches and non-farm rural employers has remained weak for the last several months. “In July, only 10.5% of bankers reporte an increase in hiring for the month,” notes Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area for the next six months. The July economic confidence index slumped to 34.2 from June’s 42.1. “Weak grain prices, higher input costs and volatility stemming from the Iran war continue to weigh on banker confidence,” concludes Goss.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy.