The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral 50.0 for January, according to the latest monthly survey of rural bank CEOs in a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for January climbed to 52.0, its highest reading since July 2023 and up from December’s 50.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. While a slight gain, a large segment of survey respondents say their area is in recession.
“More than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicate their local economy was currently in recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026,” says Creighton University’s Dr. Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.
Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost four of ten bankers, or 38.4%, support pulling back on tariffs.
Jim Eckert, executive VP and trust officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. says, “We are still dry in Central Illinois. We probably have sufficient moisture to plant 2026 crops but will need timely rains as subsoil is depleted.”
As stated by one bank CEO in the December survey, “Low grain prices and higher input costs continue to plague our area farmers. The Trump $12B payment to producers will help but is not a cure.”
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%. Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.
Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association says, “Interest rate changes by the Fed should pause for the time being. The lag is ‘long and variable,’ meaning policymakers must act with foresight. The economy’s response isn’t immediate, making it challenging to perfectly time monetary policy.”
Farming and ranchland prices: After rising above growth neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold for January with an index of 46.0, which was down from 52.5.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 18.8 but was up from December’s even weaker 15.0. “This is the 29th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the impending $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,” states Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 44.0, its highest reading since February 2023 and up from 40.9 in December. “Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” notes Goss.
The RMI is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy, Creighton University states.