According to the June survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) expanded above growth neutral after four straight months below the threshold.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for June climbed to 52.6, its highest level since July 2023 and up from May’s 45.7.
“More than half, or 52.6%, of bankers report small business growth in their service area was stable, while 42.1% indicate modest declines. The remaining 5.3% report modest growth for small business in their area,” says Creighton University’s Ernie Goss, who conducts the survey.
When asked to name the top federal action needed to drive farm and ranch income higher, 41.9% name lowering global tariffs; approximately 26.3% report passage of a five-year farm bill as the number one needed action; roughly 16.0% identified another federal bridge assistance program as the greatest need; the remaining 15.8% identified year-round E-15 as the top policy changed needed for farming and ranching growth.
Farming and ranchland prices: For a second consecutive month, the farm and ranchland index increased, rising to 55.3 from 50.1 in May. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” says Goss.
Bank CEOs estimated average cash rent per acre for non-irrigated farmland at $251 per acre, which is essentially flat from June 2022’s value of $250 per acre.
Farm equipment sales: The June farm equipment sales index increased to a weak 28.9 from May’s 18.2. This is the 34th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral.
“The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs,” states Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June economic confidence index moved to 42.1 from 34.8 in May. “In spite of the potential for year-round E-15 ethanol sales, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continue to weigh on banker confidence,” notes Goss.
The RMI is a unique index covering 10 regional states from Colorado to Illinois, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. It provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy, Creighton University states.