From the Rows | Aug. 17, 2021 — Chip Flory (West)

Day 2 – Pro Farmer Crop Tour

It got hot in southeast Nebraska on day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. But at least we weren’t dealing with the soggy conditions scouts on the eastern leg of the Tour faced the past two days! Weather the first half of the 2021 Tour were a reminder of what the entire growing season has been... it’s been kind of a weird experience.

Let’s start with Nebraska beans because I love Nebraska beans. I never underestimate the ability of the Nebraska bean crop to build yield into the end of the year... and that’s especially true as the percent of the bean crop under irrigation has increased in the state. This year, half of the bean samples we collected were from irrigated fields... that’s adding yield stability.

Why is it happening? Growers in the state offered up a couple potential reasons:

• Bean revenue – That’s pretty simple... the revenue potential from soybeans is good enough that growers were more willing to put beans on irrigated fields.
• The need for crop rotation in traditional irrigated-corn country – These growers argue the need to manage corn rootworm pressure in bring beans into corn-on-corn areas.

Nebraska pods in a 3-by-3 foot square averaged 1,226.43, down 5.5% from year-ago. The soil moisture rating in the state is below year-ago when the crop failed to hold onto a potential big yield with the bigger number of pods in 9-square feet. Without rain on the dryland crop, it will be going backwards into the end of the season – there is not enough moisture in the ground to sustain current yield potential without rain.

However, the bean crop does not have insect pressure and it does not have disease pressure. If the bean crop reaches maturity without a premature shutdown from pests or disease, that will help, but it will need rain.

The corn crop is also generally without disease or pest pressure. And growers have done what they can with crop-protection and yield-enhancement to build up a yield. The crop got planted early or on time, but then slowed down a bit because of some cool temperatures in May. June heat sped it to pollination and got it to pollination on time, and dry soils and sunny skies rushed development of the corn crop from pollination to where we are now. And where we are now is with a corn crop that has cattle finishers and dairies scrambling their chopping crews to catch the crop “on time.”

Normally, the corn samples pulled on Crop Tour are about 40% irrigated and 60% dryland. Over the past few years, the percentage of irrigated samples has inched higher. This year, it leapt higher – to 50%. Keep that in mind as we look at this year’s results.

The average number of ears in 60-foot of row (two 30-foot rows) this year was 91.89, up 4.5% from last year and 3.6% above the three-year average. There may be some efforts to increase seeding rates, but most of the reason for the increase is because of the increase in the irrigated corn samples.

Normally, the increase in irrigated samples would mean an increase in grain length, but it didn’t this year. Grain length of 7.15 inches was down 2.3% from year-ago and is below the three-year average.

The average number of kernel rows around the ear was an impressive 16.7, up 0.9% from last year.

Average row spacing was 30.18 inches, down 0.7% (which is a positive for yield).

The end-result was an average calculated yield of 182.35, up 4.1% from last year and 3.8% above the three-year average.

If this year’s irrigated corn yield was adjusted down to 43% of the samples and the dryland yield was adjusted up to 57% to be more representative of the irrigated/dryland mix we’ve seen in the past, it would drop that average yield to very close to 180 bu. per acre. That would be down 2.8% from last year’s tour result.

We’ll make our way from Nebraska City to Spencer, Iowa, on Wednesday, covering the western 40% of the state. Honestly, there are widely mixed expectations among the scouts on what we’ll see. Some scouts expect “more of the same” of what we’ve seen the first two days of the tour. Others think we’ll get a look at a corn crop that will out-perform the below-average rainfall seen in 2021.

I’ll just let the results speak for themselves.