USDA wrapped up the 2025 wheat acreage and production estimates in the Small Grains summary report on September 30. There was an upward adjustment to the production estimate compared to the 1,928 million bushels forecast for July. The final 2025 wheat estimate of 1,984 million bushels represented a gain of 56 million bushels from the July forecast. In comparison, the 2024 crop fell 37 million bushels between its July forecast and the final estimate in September.
Changes in the acreage estimates throughout the year were very minor compared to previous years. March planting intentions registered at 45.4 million acres, down 2.1 million acres year over-year. The June Acreage report increased that slightly to 45.5 million. The August Crop Production report showed a slight decrease in plantings, back down to 45.4 million. Final plantings estimated at 45.328 million were off 1.392 million from the 2024 crop.
The drop from March intentions totaled 22,000 acres. By class, winter wheat acres contracted by 162,000 acres from March intentions and spring wheat farmers underplanted intentions by a mere 30,000 acres. Durum plantings strayed the farthest from intentions with final acres at 2.185 million versus intentions of 2.015 million, an increase of 170,000 acres.
The final national yield exceeded expectations at 53.3 bushels per acre. The average yield of the past decade was 49.2 bushels per acre. During that stretch, there were only three other years when the national yield exceeded 50 bushels. Those were most recently 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024 and 51.7 bushels in 2019. The winter wheat harvest had a very good yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. The spring wheat yield was 51.7 bushels. While spring wheat was down from 2024’s record yield, it is still the second highest on record. The ten-year average was 46.2 bushels. Spring wheat conditions were mostly middling in USDA’s crop condition reports this year, teetering back and forth in the same range. Areas receiving timely rains, especially in the Dakotas, were able to end up making a good quality crop. More drought-stricken regions, like the Northwest interior, saw further declines in yield from the record set in 2024.
Total supply rises 118 million bushels at 2,935 million bushels from 2,817 million for the 2024/25 crop year. A crop year increase for supplies of 118 million bushels is relatively large, and when coupled with the likely increase in global supplies, is price bearish. Over the past 15 crop seasons, supplies actually dropped on average by -11 million bushels. The 2024/25 crop year saw supplies increase 305 million bushels, meaning production has significantly outstripped demand as of late. The 2024/25 season average farm price dropped by $1.44 from the year prior to $5.52 as ending stocks jumped 305 million bushels to a burdensome 851 million bushels. The outlook for crop year 2025/26 finds projected ending stocks up 15 million bushels year-over-year at 865 million and cash prices off 52 cents at $5.00.
The singular price-encouraging aspect for the 2025/26 crop year is a continued increase in use driven by stronger exports. Potential gains are attributable to a jump in expected exports whereas domestic use is mostly unchanged. The current total use forecast at 2,070 million bushels would be its largest use since the 2020/21 crop year at 2,100 million. Wheat languishing in the lower trading range for most of this marketing year has spurred buying interest due to perceived value. Unfortunately for the possibility of even higher U.S. exports, supplies are also high globally, driving down foreign competitors’ prices even further.
Wheat seedings broke below the 50-million acres benchmark in 2017. Between 2009 and 2016, wheat plantings ranged in the 50 millions, but trending downward from 59 million in 2009 to 50.1 million in 2016. Since 2017, plantings have been locked in the 40 millions. The average of these past nine years is 46.50 million. From this perspective, 2025 final plantings of 45.3 million and our forecast for 2026 at 44.9 million lands below the recent average for all U.S. wheat plantings. New-crop wheat prices are trading lower than the end of July. Futures prices saw a sharp dip through most of August and September, as wheat prices fell victim to bearish tones across the grains complex. At the time of writing, wheat prices are seeing strength in late October due to news of a trade deal with China. HRW and SRW and around $5.20, and HRS sits at $5.60.
In our long-range forecasts, wheat plantings continue their downtrend of the past decades. We would assume a resolution of the Ukraine War, although when is unpredictable as to any precise timing. Resolution to the conflict implies resumption of full Ukrainian production and Russia continuance of large production. The acreage forecasts retreat to 44.9 million in 2027/28 and eventually to 44.2 million in 2029/30. Ending stocks rebuild to the range of 900-1,024 million bushels. Cash prices range $5.00 to $5.50.