Trump teases imminent trade deals, emphasizes personal role in negotiations... President Donald Trump signaled that new trade agreements may be announced as early as this week, asserting his personal control over the process. “We’re negotiating with many countries but at the end of this I’ll set my own deals because I set the deal, they don’t set the deal, I set the deal,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One.
Key points:
- Focus on China: Trump called for a “fair” and “balanced” deal with China but confirmed he does not plan to speak directly with President Xi Jinping this week. “We’re talking to them — we’ll see what happens,” he said, suggesting potential announcements soon without committing to a timeline.
- India, Japan, South Korea in the mix: Trump said trade talks with India are “progressing very well,” echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who added that the U.S. is “very close” to finalizing a deal. Negotiations with Japan and South Korea are also moving forward.
- Massive scope claimed: Trump boasted that “we’ve completed up to 200 deals” in recent interviews, though no country-specific details were given. He said more information would come “in the next few weeks.”
- Tariffs as leverage: While Trump hinted that tariffs on China “could come down later,” he defended keeping them in place as a negotiation tool. “We need the leverage — it’s working,” he said, brushing off lobbying from small business groups for broader exemptions.
Analysts are skeptical about the scale and speed of the claimed 200 agreements. Trade experts note that such a volume of deals typically takes months or years to finalize. Still, momentum appears to be building with key partners like India and China, and selective announcements may be forthcoming.
Regarding possible new trade agreements with the Trump administration, Bloomberg noted “it sure looks like investors are being seduced by the promise of a flurry of trade deals likely to have questionable value if they ever materialize.” It adds: “What Trump and his aides envision is a one-night home run derby and a collection of rushed commercial deals that will have other countries pledging to buy more U.S. goods and selling less of their own to American consumers.” Analysts say the president and his team are counting on durable tariffs for two reasons. The first, as Trump said Sunday, is a belief the import taxes will force a mass reindustrialization. The second is simply as revenues to offset other tax cuts he is keen for Congress to pass on the coming months. Bottom line: “The U.S. is likely to ink trade deals with many partners by next year, except possibly China, but the question remains whether these deals will outweigh the damage caused by tariffs and uncertainty,” according to Bloomberg Economics.
Beijing dangles fentanyl cooperation to reopen U.S./China trade talks... China is signaling a possible thaw in U.S./China trade tensions by offering renewed cooperation on fentanyl enforcement — a strategic shift aimed at restarting stalled negotiations with the Trump administration. Beijing, previously firm in demanding tariff rollbacks before talks, is now showing openness to dialogue if the U.S. demonstrates “sincerity,” even as it denounces American “coercion.”
The move follows reports first from the Wall Street Journal that top Chinese officials, including Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong, are considering direct talks with U.S. counterparts on fentanyl controls, potentially in a neutral location.
Despite the diplomatic overtures, significant obstacles remain. Both sides are wary of appearing to concede first, and China continues to demand that the U.S. revoke its tariffs as a sign of good faith before talks can proceed. The Trump administration, meanwhile, maintains that China must take concrete action on fentanyl and trade practices before any tariff relief is considered.
Trump/Sheinbaum rift erupts over cartel fight... President Trump sharply criticized Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum after she rejected his proposal to deploy U.S. troops to combat drug cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum cited sovereignty concerns, declaring that “our territory is inviolable.” Trump responded that Sheinbaum declined due to fear, saying, “She’s so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk.”
The escalating tensions threaten to unravel what had been one of Trump’s more stable bilateral relationships. Despite differences, Sheinbaum had previously managed to navigate Trump’s demands on trade and border enforcement, helping Mexico avoid the full brunt of “Liberation Day” tariffs. U.S. officials had also credited her administration for a sharp drop in migrant crossings at the southern border.
Trump downplays recession fears, calls economic pain a ‘transition period’ amid tariff fallout... In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, President Trump dismissed growing recession concerns linked to his aggressive tariff policies, calling current economic turbulence a temporary “transition period” and predicting the “greatest economic boom in history.” Despite a 0.3% GDP contraction in the first quarter and rising inflation, Trump insisted the U.S. economy would rebound stronger.
- Trump’s reassurance: Trump stated he is “comfortable” with a potential recession, framing it as part of a necessary shift toward revitalized domestic manufacturing.
- Tariff fallout: New 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s 125% retaliation are roiling markets and contracting economic activity.
- Business alarm bells: Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen warned that continued tariffs could bankrupt 80% of China-reliant U.S. importers, causing up to $1 trillion in economic damage and surging consumer costs.
- Policy defenders: Trump officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argue a “detox recession” may be needed to restore manufacturing competitiveness.
- Global realignment: U.S. firms are scrambling to shift supply chains, but alternative markets can’t absorb demand fast enough. Confidence in U.S. trade reliability is waning.
While Trump remains publicly optimistic, expert warnings highlight the risk of prolonged economic disruption and diminished U.S. trade leadership if current policies persist.
Bessent: Trump’s unified economic plan aims to power both Main Street and Wall Street... In a Wall Street Journal commentary (link), U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlines President Trump’s three-pronged economic strategy — tariffs, tax reform and deregulation — as a coherent plan to rebalance the economy in favor of working Americans while maintaining strong capital markets. Bessent argues that Trump’s agenda is designed to correct decades of damage from globalization and “neoliberal excess,” especially the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing from China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. He emphasizes that each policy lever — trade, taxes, and regulatory relief — reinforces the others:
- Tariffs: Aimed at reindustrialization and reducing dependency on foreign supply chains, especially China. Bessent links tariffs directly to national security and job creation.
- Tax cuts: The administration plans to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, and introduce deductions for U.S.-made auto loans.
- Deregulation: Focused on reviving industrial capacity and easing compliance for small lenders; also tied to achieving “energy dominance” by expanding fossil fuel development.
Economic outlook: Bessent claims early results are already visible: stronger-than-expected job growth, declining inflation and a drop in consumer prices. He concludes: “This is just the cylinder firing... With all pistons moving, we’ll see more jobs, more manufacturing, more growth... and less dependence on China… The American people should expect to hear the engine humming during the second half of 2025.”
Large number USDA employees take buyout in federal workforce overhaul... More than 15,000 employees — roughly 15% of USDA’s workforce — have accepted financial incentives to leave their positions under President Trump’s federal downsizing initiative, according to a USDA briefing obtained by Reuters. The departures stem from two rounds of the Deferred Resignation Program: 3,877 employees signed contracts in February, and another 11,305 in April. The number is expected to rise as older employees finalize decisions and paperwork.
Those leaving include 674 county employees of the Farm Service Agency who directly serve farmers in offices across the country, and 2,408 staff of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, which provides technical assistance to farmers and manages working land conservation programs.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has said frontline staff, like those at FSA, will not be affected by any forthcoming reductions by the agency.
Also leaving are 555 employees of the Food Safety Inspection Service, which ensures the safety of the U.S. meat, poultry and egg supply. Some of the 1,377 staff departures from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service will affect the agency’s response to bird flu.
The buyout program, developed in partnership with Elon Musk, offers several months of pay and benefits to incentivize exits. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is overseeing the restructuring and has exempted 53 critical roles from the broader federal hiring freeze, including wildland firefighters, veterinarians, and food safety inspectors.
Nationwide, over 260,000 federal civilian employees have exited through buyouts, terminations, or early retirement since Trump’s second term began — about 10% of the entire federal civilian workforce.