PF Report Reaction: Markets react negatively to Sept. 29 data
Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading fractionally higher, soybeans were 10 to 13 cents lower and wheat futures were 2 to 5 cents lower.
As of 11:40 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading a nickel lower, soybeans are 19 to 22 cents lower and wheat futures are 13 to 20 cents lower.
Sept. 1 Grain Stocks
Corn: 1.361 billion bu.; trade expected 1.429 billion bu.
— compares to 4.106 billion bu. on June 1; 1.377 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2022
Beans: 268 million bu., trade expected 242 million bu.
— compares to 796 million bu. on June 1; 274 million bu. on Sept. 1, 2022
Wheat: 1.780 billion bu.; trade expected 1.772 billion bu.
— compares to 580 million bu. on June 1; 1.778 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2022
Corn stocks in all positions as of Sept. 1 totaled 1.361 billion bu., 68 million bu. less than the average pre-report estimate. Of the total stocks, 605 million bu. (44.4%) were stored on farms, up 19% from last year. Off-farm stocks stood at 756 million bu. (55.5%) , down 13%from a year ago. Implied disappearance during the final quarter of 2022-23 was 2.75 billion bu., down 7.4% from the same period last year.
Sept. 1 soybean stocks totaled 268 million bu., 26 million bu. more than traders expected. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 72 million bu. (26.9%), up 14% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks at 196 million bu. (73.1%), were down 7% from last year. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2023 totaled 528 million bu., down 24% from the same period a year earlier.
Wheat stocks stood at 1.780 billion bu., 8 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate. On-farm stocks were estimated at 598 million bu. (33.6%), up 1% from last September. Off-farm stocks at 1.18 billion bu. (66.3%) were down less than 1% from a year ago. The June - August 2023 indicated disappearance was 614 million bu., up 8% from the same period a year earlier.
Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and farm program administrative data, the 2022 corn for grain production was revised down 15 million bu. from the previous estimate. Planted area as revised to 88.6 million acres and area harvested for grain was revised to 79.1 million acres. The 2022 corn yield at 173.4 bu. per acre was increased up 0.1 bu. from the previous estimate.
USDA revised down its 2022 soybean crop estimate by 6 million bushels. Planted area was unchanged at 87.5 million acres, but harvested area was revised to 86.2 million acres. The 2022 yield at 49.6 bu. per acre was revised up 0.1 bu. from the previous estimate.
Annual Small Grains Summary
All wheat: 1.812 billion bu.; trade expected 1.729 billion bu.
— compares to 1.734 billion bu. in August
All winter wheat: 1.248 billion bu.; trade expected 1.223 billion bu.
— compares to 1.227 billion bu. in August
HRW: 601 million bu.; trade expected 584 million bu.
— compares to 585 million bu. in August
SRW: 449 million bu.; trade expected 438 million bu.
— compares to 440 million bu. in August
White winter: 198 million bu.; trade expected 201 million bu.
— compares to 202 million bu. in August
Other spring wheat: 505 million bu.; trade expected 446 million bu.
— compares to 450 million bu. in August
Durum: 59 million bu.; trade expected 57 million bu.
— compares to 57 million bu. in August
USDA’s final all-wheat production estimate was raised 78 million bu. from August and came in 83 million bu. above the average pre-report estimate. USDA raised the all-wheat yield 2.8 bu. to 48.6 bu. per acre.
USDA raised its estimate 16 million bu. for HRW, 9 million bu. for SRW, 55 million bu. for other spring wheat and 2 million bu. for durum wheat. It cut the white winter wheat estimate 4 million bushels.
